Category: Daily Call

Didn’t see that extension to the downside. Shaved my short positions last week on support test — then proceeded to get stopped out of a little length from Sunday night. Obviously, shaving the short left $.40 on the table but will get the opportunity replay later this winter. Not sure where the low end of the new range will be –trade over the next few days will define as the market is hitting extreme zones in the momentum indicators. Needless to say– the upside of the range will be the gap in both the weekly and daily charts.

Major Support: $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$6.314, $6.74, $7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35,

Prices opened $.20 lower on Sunday night as traders expect the bearish mood to continue into the week. Would ignore that move – rather look at the range that has developed between $6.30-$6.75. Perhaps this extension downward holds but there are issues with further lower moves (see Weekly section). Buying this dip should be with tight stops.

Major Support: $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.357-$6.305, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$6.74, $7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

Had nothing to add to the Daily from Wednesday as prices were just at the low end of the range and all to be said was trade the range. The same could be said for yesterday with two differences– 1) we are at the high end of the range (selling zone here shortly), and 2) prices rallied after a bearish storage report. As we have discussed — when price rallies on bearish news — something isn’t right. We will need confirmation of that hypothesis today but would be more patient in selling the rally today.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

Not much to analyze here as prices tested support rebounded and ended back in the recent range. Continue to work the range until the general bias gets better defined.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

Well — suggested yesterday that the trade looked to test support — little did I know that resistance just shy of $7.00 would be tested first before the reversal to test support and expand the low end of the range. Now will prices perform similar movements as to last July when prices closed below the commonly watched 200 day SMA? In July, prices closed below that key level three out of four days before finding the support to rally. The trend line from the Dec ’21 lows and the July lows and the SMA are key to near term trade.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

Discussed the support zones and importance in the Weekly section– need less to say the late Friday afternoon and early Sunday trade point to another test of support early this week. As discussed previously, the market needs to confirm its directional bias and the lack of open interest is not helping the confirmation. The only entities shorting the market are the speculative crowd and they will look to each other to take the lead (yea — ok) as, they increased their positions but fell as the percentage of total open interest, all as prices rallied above $7.00. Stick to the range.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

A little confused tonight as the storage report came in bearish to expectations and is likely the first of a few bearish reports but prices started with strength and held on to a chunk of it throughout the day. The bearish traders should be scratching their heads as that was a a set up made for a retest of support. Perhaps we will get it today or early next week. If you are a bear — then this zone $7.00 – $7.10 looks good for positions. If you are a bull wait for a confirming break out above $7.10.. If you are like me (uncommitted), wait for the break out or break down to re-institute positions.

Nice rally continues after testing the major support. It is still a bearish trade (when prices broke below $7.40) in a long term bullish trend. That correlates to paring positions on the rallies if you are long the rally or adding to short positions on rallies play the game with the expectations of the ranges being tested.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

As discussed yesterday– when prices closed below the 200 day SMA and the 40 Week SMA for two days, prices immediately repudiated with in a day. Yesterday may be a similar response but the market will need to confirm the rebound over the next few days. Until confirmation of the rebound, would be hesitant to add dramatically to length.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

The editor is not allowing me up-load the Daily image for your review — but let me explain that prices closed the day below the key 200 day SMA for the first time since last July. Last July the market rallied off of that test — not sure what happen this time, in July it was repudiated in three days.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9