This Time Declines Fall Short of March Low

Daily Continuation

Solid run for support but prices couldn’t muster the strength to test the lows — in fact they just got to $2.127 before buying showed up. This area down to $2.095 will provide a major hurdle for further attempts at the Feb lows. Going to keep saying — play the range and sell premium when available. I am traveling to Mexico for the next seven days and the internet is not going to be an option. Should be back to look at the expiration during the middle of next week.

Major Support: $2.127-$2.095, $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Wants to Test March Low

Daily Continuation

This is going to get interesting as prices seem to be destined to test the Feb lows and it will be interesting to see if the volume is there to accomplish the task. Until then — as spoken before — play the range and finally, the market is at the low end of the range.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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All Trend Indications Signal Lower

Daily Continuous

Not much to add from the headline — go into some of the supporting discussion in the Weekly section. For now if you are a buyer, be patient — if you are a seller don’t be greedy (or maybe be greedy and get caught in the rebound similar to early March).

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Range Continues

Daily Continuation

Nothing to add from the Daily’s of the last week — Play the range.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Burn Tests Support

Daily Continuous

The range trade of late tested the lows before finding buyers. As discussed yesterday — traders should continue to play the recent range between $3.00 – $2.40. No information available for a longer term position at this time, but as we conclude the withdrawal winter season, clearer expectations will likely surface to the market.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Churn and Burn

Daily Continuous

What can I say about consolidation and declining range trade. Go back a couple of years and read the diatribes of the range bound boring market then. This time feels a little different for both directions and it will be interesting to witness. From the trade perspective (perhaps not daily) is playing the ranges.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Rebound Off Support

Daily Continuous

Prices rallied off of a test of support and continue in the recent range. Would expect this behavior to continue until some element of the supply/demand balance changes. Continue to trade the range near term.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Prices Seem to Test Key Support

Daily Continuous

Sunday night prices were weaker, extending the trade bias late last week. This decline should establish a higher low from last month and then should continue to build a base from which to move towards the spring/early summer rally.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Testing Support Zones Hoped For

Daily Continuous

Have been looking for a serious test of support zones after last week’s continuous gains in price — largely due to late shorts getting gutted. As discussed in the Weekly section this past weekend, the gains last week were primarily fueled by open interest declines hence short covering. Now the bears seek to control the movement by once again establishing new lows. In the Weekly section, there was a discussion of how the market seemed to be sending a message that perhaps a near term significant low had been achieved, now a base for a Q2 rally was in place. We will get this hypothesis confirmed or rebuked in the coming days. The market will be defining its intentions shortly.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Quiet Day

Daily Continuous

After the big drop on Monday — selling slowed yesterday. Perhaps we are going to develop a range for trade near term — the rest of the week will define. I have received some news regarding family that will keep me from publishing the Daily tomorrow. If it is the range concept — would be a seller above $3.00 prompt and a buyer below $2.60.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.41- $2.34
Major Resistance$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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