Category: Daily Call

Been Looking For It

It has taken three test of resistance provided by the summer highs at or just above $3.02, but prices finally the result that the market was hinting at through most of the summer. I doubt the market is going to get on a rocket up to $5.00 but this week should provide insight as to how the rally will behave. Due to over-bought conditions currently (see Weekly) would favor a retracement to the breakout level or in the vicinity.

Major Support:$2.83 $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.02-$3.04,

Major Resistance $3.24, $3.485, $3.536, 3.59

Break Out Confirmation

Daily Continuous

My apologies for missing publishing yesterday — did not set up the server properly– but you missed nothing as my diatribe just spoke about the failure of the move on Wednesday by closing under the key resistance area (after stopping me out on the run). Said the same thing going into the storage report that the selling around $3.00 had a close and low risk opportunity and yesterday proved that it was low risk. The one element that the market provided was the potential confirmation of a bias change with a high volume (daily) directional bias change. It is now imperative for the market to finally confirm this be holding most of the gains through the weekly close.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.24, $3.536, 3.59

A Rebound — Looking to Test Key Resistance

Daily Continuous

Not since February has the market broke the resistance provided by the highs at $3.027. Once, in early August, prices tested the area but failed. Now, on the expectations of winter coming, it seems prices are wanting to test this zone again. Time will tell but the good element of this trade is low risk — selling the zone with tight stops just beyond.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.99-$3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Prices Decline Well Short of Gap

Daily Continuous

Weakness prevailed but the declines fell short of serious tests of the support provided by the expiration gap. This week should continue to provide clues as to the gap and the term of its existence.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $2.99-$3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Does the Gap Close?

Daily Continuous

Go into the expiration of the Oct contract and expectations on the upcoming month in the Weekly section. From a daily standpoint — would expect the expiration gap to be challenged during the coming week. This will likely set up the lower end for the Nov range of prices.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $2.99-$3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Premium Suppressed

Daily Continuous

I guess I should lighten the suppression comment to “narrowed slightly”. Not much else to say versus the Weekly expectations published last weekend.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Nothing Changes

Daily Continuous

Nothing has changed from my Daily and Weekly comments yesterday.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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October Lives For Three Days

Daily Continuous

Not much to say about the last three days of the Oct prompt contract life outside of the range that contracts have maintained all summer. Weakness has been the trend of the expiration’s this year so would think there should be some this month as well. Nov has a serious premium discussed in the Weekly section and it is likely that Nov will be brought into the recent range.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Guesses

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Any guesses as to what I will be doing as the market challenges to low side of the summer trading range?

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Market Winding Tighter In Range

Daily Continuous

Seems to me that this is starting to feel like a market that is winding its way to an issue. When I was a kid (few days ago) we used to have balsa woods plane that you would wind the rubber band up so tight and throw it in the air- releasing the rubber band to power the plane. This market is behaving the same way as the range gets tighter and tighter within the larger range — something is going to give. Whether the plane takes off or crashes into the lawn and the band breaks is unknown. Stick with the range trade but start to lighten up on selling premium.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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