Category: Daily Call

Seen This Movie Before

Daily Continuation

This market behavior is similar to previous weeks as prices rally early in the week only to succumb and decline into the storage report. Is this just a repeat performance or is there a shift in market bias. The next couple of days will likely provides clues– until the definition becomes clearer — play the range and we are nearing the top end of the range.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.32-$2.41, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Expect More of the Range Trade

Daily Continuation

Even with the reversal on Friday — this market is mired in a range environment for now. Go into some of the technical developments in the Weekly section– but Daily you have to continue the range trade until the market says other wise.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.32-$2.41, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Middle of the Range

Daily Continuation

Just wallowing in the middle of the recent range, getting set up for the next bearish storage report. Here is a tip– it is going to expand the surplus over the 5-year average. Does anyone think different in the industry? Hey bears — grow some love for declines (would of used a different reference— but unprofessional).

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.32, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Boring

Daily Continuous

Hate to say it but the run went just short of a key resistance — failed and now we are in boring zone.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Headed North

Daily Continuous

Looks like prices want to test resistance after failing at extending below the support zone. A key for the move will be the 50 day SMA just over $2.32 as the market has only closed over that closely watch trend line once since last Dec.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Prices Down to April Support

Daily Continuation

Prices extended lower re-testing the lows from April on the continuation chart. Questions remain about a lower extension below $2.00 or a rebound up to late April highs.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Important Period for Near Term Prices

Daily Continuation

Good to see the declines continue to test last month’s lows and now the question remains what about $2.00. Been here twice before and further declines will be interesting to watch. Folks in the press attribute the declines to production and recession fears. Not sure about the latter but according to the EIA report yesterday — Dry gas production continues to be strong. Recession issues will be offset by the power demand that was sighted in the Weekly Summary of the Storage report yesterday. We are at the low end of the range– trade accordingly.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Test Continues — Small Bounce Off of Lows

Daily Continuation

The movement of late is now testing the the lows and giving up the premium afforded the June contract during last months declines. It was interesting to watch the bounce off of $2.11 and prices firmed through the close. This will continue to get interesting as prices are now going to deal with another bearish storage report.Play the low end of the range.

Major Support:$2.134-$2.14, $2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Decline Continued

Daily Continuation

As discussed yesterday, wanted to see the results of a deeper test of support and started to gain a concept of the result as prices bounce slightly off the daily lows. Believe the summer range for price support is being established until the summer forecasts get firmer. There is no reason for the shorts to panic and no reason for them to capture profits only the next month or so will determine as the forecasts provide guidance.

Major Support:$2.134-$2.14, $2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Further Declines Signal Additional Consolidation

Daily Continuation

Prices declined yesterday but did not break below the lows from the June lows at May expiration. Expect further tests of support, declining into the lows of June during April. From there we will get a better sense of what is coming.

Major Support:$2.134-$2.14, $2.12, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595