Category: Daily Call

Well– the RSI (weekly) jumped to the lowest level in the last decade– but some traders are irrelevant of that fact and are confirming to some that prices are headed under $2.00 — yee haw. Must admit that this level of bearishness is not to be taken lightly nor relevant to future prices — as the market is setting itself up for a significant short covering episode.

Major Support: $2.533, $2.422, $2.238
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$3.536, 3.595, $3.63, $3.789, $4.128, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948

That is the mantra for the speculators currently– Over-sold ??? Who cares keep selling. Have to admit one element that has been accurate three of the last four weeks is anticipating bearish storage reports beget more selling which has proven profitable on a day basis. Its been the theme for the month of January and Feb started off singing the same tune. These little tendencies are good for a quick position but would never hold over night due to the general over sold bias discussed of late. Did a look into the nature of who (segment) is selling since the Nov highs and hope to share with you over the weekend.

Major Support: 2.68, $2.533, $2.422, $2.238
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$3.536, 3.595, $3.63, $3.789, $4.128, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948

Was somewhat startled to see the rally on expiration– almost brought back memories of 2022 expiration’s. The rally to the close up to $3.109 but the March contract was left for dead $.25 lower. Now the market opens on Sunday night and prices are wanting to extend the declines to yet a lower low. Will not say that won’t happen, as natural gas always goes to extremes both up and down. Go into a lot of the technical considerations on the Weekly section– but due to the current condition of the bias would not be adding to bearish positions except on rallies back above $3.00.

Major Support: $2.761, 2.68, $2.533, $2.422, $2.238
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$3.536, 3.595, $3.63, $3.789, $4.128, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948

Heading into expiration all I can say is there is a whole bunch of bears going to the same river to feed at the same time. Whether or not the storage number has anything to add to the upcoming expected feeding frenzy — I offer little insight. What I can offer is caution as it has been my experience when so many are expecting an “outcome” whether bullish or bearish it rarely works out to expectations.

Major Support: $3.269, $3.18-$3.09, $3.00
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$3.536 –$3.63, $3.789, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948, $5.056

Prices opened strong on Sunday night and maintained strength for a couple of hours before being subjected to the current bearish sentiment and falling nearly to the close last Friday. Something interesting happened then’ as prices reversed and challenged the highs of the early trade. Not sure what can be made of that but history is telling me that prices are due to rally but how high is unknown.

Major Support: $3.269, $3.18-$3.09, $3.00
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$3.536 –$3.63, $3.789, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948, $5.056

Analyze some of the historical precedence of the current market in the Weekly section, but the declines may start running into support in the market. In spite of many folks analysis — this market shows little signs of continued weakness with out providing a rally of sorts (perhaps to $3.75) before an additional leg lower. Sunday night trade has provided a strong chance for reaching that level as the opening was up to $3.48.

Major Support: $3.269, $3.18-$3.09, $3.00
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$3.536 –$3.63, $3.789, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948, $5.056

Guess everyone is getting geared up for the upcoming bearish storage report as price expanded the range downward towards the end of the day. Still over sold (momentum indicators), continues to challenge 2 standard deviations below the 20 week SMA, and volume maintains average levels– looks like a bear market from the tech standpoint–but I have a lot of experience selling (or buying) at 2 standard deviations beyond the 20 wk — so I will stick with sell the rallies and defer to add to positions.

Major Support: $3.14-$3.00
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948, $5.056