Category: Daily Call

My apologies– I expected the bullish response on options expiration day not the day before– regardless the market for the first time in four weeks, found buyers and fewer sellers, allowing prices to rally on the day. Not surprising behavior based upon all the selling that has been occurring over the last few weeks. Not sure what the March contract does over the next two days — but I am sure I won’t be playing in that pool. I have been dipping into the summer months, now that winter has been defined. Will look at each summer chart and look for good levels to buy, considering the blood letting that has been going on since December.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$2.34, $2.61, $2.657, $3.536, 3.595

There may be some excitement coming as the decline’s have taken prices to the $2.00 area which is a very large position in open interest. The break down through the level will take March considerably lower and the puts are forced to cover. Best idea from here is to sit on the sidelines — let this extreme over sold movement conclude as it seems more about the decline in general rather than fundamental input.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$2.34, $2.61, $2.657, $3.536, 3.595

Nothing more to be said that when a market breaks support and ends up down for the eighth week of the last nine, closing on the lows — well it just doesn’t get any more bearish for prices the next week. Sure enough, when we opened Sunday and through the light trade day, prices moved lower. Discussed in the Weekly about thoughts on the market forming a base / consolidating, so give it a read. How low does the record oversold market go — no clue but the risk / return on new shorts is declining each day.

Major Support: $2.238-$2.22, $2.00, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$2.34, $2.61, $2.657, $3.536, 3.595

Over the last 10 trading days the market has traded in a $.35 range and have little or no interesting in breaking out or down. Where is the love (especially considering the time of the month). What are we going to do here? Discussed in the late Weekly diatribe that the market seems to be “basing” — built into that term is the concept that from this period prices rally. The other term to use is consolidation for this trade — not insinuating the upcoming move is up or down. I believe that price are consolidating but could be basing if the shorts don’t develop the power to extend.

Major Support: $2.533, $2.422, $2.238
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$2.67, $3.536, 3.595, $3.63, $3.789, $4.128, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948

Thanks for all the kind wishes over the last couple of days– gas, really, did nothing to catch my attention from bed. Still in the range from last week — but the market does seem to be “basing” here (see the Weekly Update) for some additional tests of resistance. It was informative that the declines on Monday were reversed on Tuesday and the selling ran out of follow through. Seems to be developing a new range near term– for the longer range thoughts bring up today’s Weekly.

Major Support: $2.533, $2.422, $2.238
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$3.536, 3.595, $3.63, $3.789, $4.128, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948

Tuesday was a higher volume day and was matched yesterday, Now lets look at the storage release and the reaction to it. Would be a buyer on support tests, going into the football weekend,

Major Support: $2.533, $2.422, $2.238
Minor Support:
Major Resistance$3.536, 3.595, $3.63, $3.789, $4.128, $4.22-$4.39, $4.75-$4.825, $4.948