Category: Daily Call

Consolidation Off of Declines

Daily Continuous

Prices took a day off of the declines, now seem to be consolidating the recent losses. Not convinced that the declines will not test the support from the bullish environment (since Apr ’22 — series of higher lows) around $2.47, but am not entering this market with length until it gives me a reason to.

Major Support: $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.68, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Jan Spot Extremely Over Sold

Daily Continuous with RSI

Had some questions yesterday when the market gaped lower on the open when it was over sold. Please remember that technical indications are usually based upon mathematics and one of the common indicators we use is the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). As you will notice in the chart above — the RSI is approaching the lower level of 20 which indicates over sold. This does not mean it can’t go lower but notice on chart — it doesn’t stay there for long. Look at the chart below which is the Spot January chart which is well below 20 and is considered extremely over sold.

Daily Spot January Contract

Even though the technical indicator is under 20 — does not mean that it can’t go lower but how long it stays there is another question. When markets are extended to extreme levels — they are subject reversals that punish the late momentum players.

Am feeling a little better today and will work on the Weekly tomorrow.

Major Support:$2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.68, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Down and Down Further

Daily Continuous

Under the weather (so to speak) from my granddaughter’s virus — will be back on board (I hope) tomorrow — all I can say tonight is that prices are lower Sunday night and want to go lower.

Major Support: $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.68, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Close But No Cigar Yet

Daily Continuous

Was expecting prices to go down to the expiration level of the Dec contract — while close not quite ($2.68-$2.706). Starting to wonder with all the bearish fundamental (forecast data) built into the Jan contract — What is going to send it lower– don’t think technical data points will as they are starting to become over sold– would be hesitant to initiated significant bearish positions here.

Major Support: $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.68, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Bearish Extends Closing Jan Premium Expected

Daily Continuous

Bearish trade continues and would expect further declines on the storage report unless all the folks have already sold in anticipation. We shall see but it is not looking good for bullish positions.

Major Support: $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Expiration Gap Closed

Daily Continuous

It took some time but the expiration gap from last September finally got filled. So trade action closed both gaps it inherited — both resistance and support. Now what– my attitude will remain consistent with prior months in letting the market define its bias near term– but there is a clear bearish tilt going on now.

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Bearish

Daily Continuous

Breaking trend line support and most moving average support lines, the declines have been impressive– so breathtaking that profit taking has commenced. We all know it isn’t going to zero (well at least not tomorrow) so warm weather forecasts will only last for a period of time and then the flip which will be ugly. In the meantime play the short side for daily trades.

Major Support: , $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Press Lower

Daily Continuous

As suggested in the Weekly yesterday, prices pressed lower and are now starting to attract the major support areas from the summer (what was resistance is now support). This will be interesting as volume during the holiday week is historically weak and may make the extending the declines easier.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Last Week Provides Negative Near Term Bias

Daily Continuous

Provided some insight as to the negative bias from last week in the Weekly section– but the bias is clearly negative and further declines should be expected. However, that being said there is some areas of significant support coming up so the trade will provide some interesting input.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Storage Report Brought Volatility

Daily Continuous

Expected the potential for volatility but a $.238 range yesterday seemed a little over done. Regardless, prices now have to deal with the key $3.00 area that was rebuked last week at the 50 day SMA. So here we sit — if you a bullish bias trader, then buying on this decline with a stop just below the key support zoned makes for a low risk trade. If you are a bearish bias the you need to see a close below the key area to add to positions.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65