Category: Daily Call

Doubt that the market will test either end of the “new” range that has developed with last week’s rally. July contract is coming in with a $.17 premium to June which places it at the top end of the range. You know I have left the June contract and now trading July or August near term due to the light volume (exaggerated by the expiration June) due to the holiday weekend. Speaking of which, there will not be a Daily until Tuesday May 30th.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.36
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

So prices broke down after the extension of the recent range to the high side. Looks like the action has tempered the breakout but the week is not over. Perhaps the market is setting up a new range– we will find out the low of a new range in short order.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.36
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

That is a technical break out (discussed in the Weekly Detail) and now the market needs to confirm the event by testing the old resistance ($2.52-$2.46) as support and launching prices to new highs. These highs may come later after the upcoming holiday period (see Weekly detail) or may take effect prior to the holiday. History tells us that prices have a tendency to rally into the holiday before weakening in early June.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.50, $2.36
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Prices finally broke out of the recent range and closed above $2.50 for the first time since March. Yes, there was some short covering around $2.50 that propelled the move a dime high. Is this the confirmation of the historical seasonal strength in spring and early summer– not sure but a retest of the “old”resistance ($2.50) and a failure to send prices lower will be a good indicator.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.50, $2.36
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Not a lot happening so I won’t bore you with useless analysis – still a range.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.32-$2.41, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Similar action after the Monday run but not as dramatic as previous turn-around’s. Second consecutive close above the 50 day SMA is interesting and how that plays out during the bearish storage report (so I am told by you fundamental folks) will be interesting. Continue the range trade.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.32-$2.41, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

This market behavior is similar to previous weeks as prices rally early in the week only to succumb and decline into the storage report. Is this just a repeat performance or is there a shift in market bias. The next couple of days will likely provides clues– until the definition becomes clearer — play the range and we are nearing the top end of the range.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.32-$2.41, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Even with the reversal on Friday — this market is mired in a range environment for now. Go into some of the technical developments in the Weekly section– but Daily you have to continue the range trade until the market says other wise.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.32-$2.41, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Just wallowing in the middle of the recent range, getting set up for the next bearish storage report. Here is a tip– it is going to expand the surplus over the 5-year average. Does anyone think different in the industry? Hey bears — grow some love for declines (would of used a different reference— but unprofessional).

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:
Major Resistance $2.32, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595