Category: Daily Call

Ceiling Remains

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Price run fell short of serious resistance — so lets call it a failed attempt — again. Storage is upon us lets see what happens– still in the summer range.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Gap Closed

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As expected, the gap left from last Tuesday was closed yesterday and now the market is starting to bounce up to the resistance area that has repelled rallies during the summer. This will be key for the remainder of the October prompt– if the resistance breaks then tests of $3.00 are imminent — if it remains firm then a great selling zone.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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No Lipstick

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There is not enough lip stick around to paint this pig market. Go into the effects of last week’s trade on the upcoming month in the Weekly section. Not looking like break outs or break downs. Have fun — if something remotely interesting happens I will publish a Daily – going to be traveling and have little to no interest is trying to put any color on this pig.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Immediate Mission Accomplished

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Wanted see a test of the September expiration and got a solid run at it yesterday. Now what — explained in the Weekly section of the website what will happen either way.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Saw That Coming

Daily Continuous

Not like we didn’t see that decline coming — but now it gets interesting as the market still need to decline into the September expiration and then break through the support zones down to $2.47. As discussed in the Weekly, this decline may last more than just a day — so patience is a virtue in this area — let the trade indicate the move.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Was Off Base

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Well, guess I was a little off base when prices only declined to $2.647 which was well above the close and expiration of the September contract. The Labor Day trend, though, has not completed yet so perhaps the prognostication will prove relevant. Time will tell — storage release — yee haw, the gap between 5 year and this year continues to narrow but the story remains the same — we got plenty of gas in the ground. The bears have to realize that depending on forecasts and actuality, that “surplus” can disappear quickly in November. Trade wise the top of the range now is $3.00 and expect selling there.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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September Goes Quietly

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Staying within the range that September contract had developed, it went out on a quiet note towards the low end of the range it had developed. Now we have a fresh Oct contract with tropical disturbances (bearish) and the Labor Day weekend trends (bearish before/or after the holiday). Then you include my prediction in the Weekly analysis, that the new prompt would likely give up any premium it had to Sept and you have my prediction for the next two days of trade. Won’t hear from me until after the holiday.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Two Days Left — Range Rockin

Daily Continuation

As discussed in the Weekly area — would expect the premium afforded to the October contract to dissolve after the September contract expires. Perhaps, the premium dissipates during the expiration– we will see. From a trade perspective watch the premium vs the September movement.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Startling Response to Bullish Report

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When prices don’t rally on bullish news (storage report) then you have a segment of folks lining up to keep the price low– question is — how long can they keep it suppressed before another short covering rally like two weeks ago. It is a bearish seasonal period though but running out of prompt.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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If Not Now– When?

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Prices continued the declines and are now clearly wanting to test the calendar July and late Jun lows– Then what happens but the test needs to occur.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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