Category: Daily Call

Bearish Extends Closing Jan Premium Expected

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Bearish trade continues and would expect further declines on the storage report unless all the folks have already sold in anticipation. We shall see but it is not looking good for bullish positions.

Major Support: $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Expiration Gap Closed

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It took some time but the expiration gap from last September finally got filled. So trade action closed both gaps it inherited — both resistance and support. Now what– my attitude will remain consistent with prior months in letting the market define its bias near term– but there is a clear bearish tilt going on now.

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Bearish

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Breaking trend line support and most moving average support lines, the declines have been impressive– so breathtaking that profit taking has commenced. We all know it isn’t going to zero (well at least not tomorrow) so warm weather forecasts will only last for a period of time and then the flip which will be ugly. In the meantime play the short side for daily trades.

Major Support: , $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Press Lower

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As suggested in the Weekly yesterday, prices pressed lower and are now starting to attract the major support areas from the summer (what was resistance is now support). This will be interesting as volume during the holiday week is historically weak and may make the extending the declines easier.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Last Week Provides Negative Near Term Bias

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Provided some insight as to the negative bias from last week in the Weekly section– but the bias is clearly negative and further declines should be expected. However, that being said there is some areas of significant support coming up so the trade will provide some interesting input.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Storage Report Brought Volatility

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Expected the potential for volatility but a $.238 range yesterday seemed a little over done. Regardless, prices now have to deal with the key $3.00 area that was rebuked last week at the 50 day SMA. So here we sit — if you a bullish bias trader, then buying on this decline with a stop just below the key support zoned makes for a low risk trade. If you are a bearish bias the you need to see a close below the key area to add to positions.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Storage Report Brings Implications

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Not sure what the release will show but taking into the fact that it reflects two weeks of activity — the potential for volatility is high. The market, though, continues to reflect a consolidation phase type of behavior. If the previous months are any indication the range developing will have $3.00 as the low end and the highs of $3.64 finding sellers. Plan accordingly.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Consolidation of Recent Gains and Declines

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Last week’s declines met with early gains this week — its not surprising that the market is going to consolidate and figure out its next directional bias (if only for a day or two). Developing a nice trading range that could provide $.25-$40 volatility in both directions.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Expected Run Now What

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That didn’t take long for prices to rally, as discussed yesterday, and the run took prices up to low resistance zones. We shall see how far this rally goes and yes, the forecasts will have a lot to do with the run extension. I will stick with the technical data points and will trade accordingly with an eye to some forecasts defining sudden moves.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Major Support Holds– For Now

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Prices closed below the trend line off of the Sept / Oct lows and are now challenging the major support zone around $3.00. Guess December is going to be warm and the Thanksgiving parade will be in shorts. No clue but this decline will end and the late comers will be gutted unless Dec is warm and comfy.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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