Category: Daily Call

Declines Test 2-Week Lows

The storage report provided the spark to send prices down but could not break below the lows last week and the previous week. Not what I would consider a break down to push prices into the $2.40’s. Tomorrow is another day though, so have you’re positions ready.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Becoming a Smaller Range

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Compression of the range continues and we all know this is unlikely to continue for very long. Perhaps, with the storage report we will see a breakout or break down to test the support and resistance for a bias play.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Small Gains

Daily Continuation

Prices gained slightly during the day neither testing resistance nor support. Stick with the game plan on buying and selling at tests of support or resistance.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Prices Firm

Daily Continuous

Surprising to myself, prices firmed instead of extending the declines. Don’t believe it was a change of heart nor directional changes, but just a weak test of support last week and a slight rebound. Play the range identified in the Weekly section.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Expect Additional Tests of Support

Daily Continuous

Last week provided the initial test of support and declining in the normal post Independence day fashion– now lets see what the low end of this trading range is as last week provided solid tests of several levels (see Weekly section). The high end of the July range has likely been established with last week’s high– but that is not written in stone.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

Declines Continue Testing Support

Daily Continuous

Prices declined to test last week’s low at $2.61 but found some buying the big area if the bears want some action is around $2.52 then from $2.52-$2.448. We shall see — volume doesn’t look like it is supporting the declines in a meaningful way.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.52-$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

Bears Test the Downside For Now

Daily Continuation

The bears seem to control the early morning and therefore the trade day direction as they waved off the forecasts for demand and started selling, taking prices to the short term support area. There is a lot more trade to July than this early move indicates (see Weekly). For now– I see higher lows and a change in bias — so I will add on the dips.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Early July Trade Has History

Daily Continuous

Not sure why prices were down on the early trade on Monday — lack of volume and folks trading likely the culprits. The short term weather had significant demand that will start to show the power demand expected this summer and the potential impacts on storage balances. Went into the medium term impacts for gas in the Weekly section as well as some historical flavor for what happens in July trade. Not convinced that the upcoming week will challenge the $3.00 area, but technical indications are that is a matter of time.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Quiet Start to the Trade

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Not much to say about the trade yesterday except that the number forced some shorts to cover– set the high for the day and then wallowed around on light volume. Light volume not surprising going into the holiday week. Looks like folks in the northeast are having troubles leaving for the holiday and judging from the trade — some may be nat gas traders. Speaking of leaving — I will not be providing a Daily on Monday and the next Daily will be on the 5th of July– have a great Independence celebration with your families.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

Aug Now Rules July Trade

Daily Continuous

It was good to see the August contract come back to the July expiration — so we don’t have to discuss that convergence. Now we get a storage number on the heels of a fairly aggressive fundamental demand week according to some of my fundamental traders. Still range trading between $2.47 and $2.80 — so pick your side.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support:$2.47, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.816-$2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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