Category: Daily Call

Storage Can’t Induce Volatility

Daily Continuous

A bullish injection report sent prices to the high of the day only to spend the rest of the trade day declining back to where they started. Perhaps it consolidates for a while but the same result as the range trade between $2.70-$3.00 last month will likely end in a similar result–question is outcome a higher break out or a retest of the $3.00 break out area.

Major Support: $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.04-$3.028, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.42-$3.48, $3.536, 3.59

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Nothing to Add From Yesterday and the Spot Nov Chart

Daily Continuous

Discussed why price run failed where it did yesterday — nothing to add. Perhaps, a storage release will provide momentum to confirming the bias started last week or provide the selling to test the break out zone.

Major Support: $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.04-$3.028, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.42-$3.48, $3.536, 3.59

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Prices Seem “Comfortable” With Levels

Daily Continuous

Prices remained calm through the digestion process and nothing seems to stick out from a technical perspective on the Continuous chart above. That said the Spot Nov charts sheds some additional light on why the pause at $3.47-$3.48 area. Look at the spot November chart below below, the area was the high from trade in August on that brief test of resistance while Sept was prompt.

Spot November Contract

From this area there is little resistance in the spot chart until the early March highs.

Major Support: $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.04-$3.028, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.42-$3.48, $3.536, 3.59

Digesting The Two Day Gains

Daily Continuous

The rally slowed down yesterday as the market digested the gains of late last week. As discussed in the Weekly section, a slow down an a brief test of support (breakout area) is likely warranted now.

Major Support: $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.04-$3.028, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.42, $3.536, 3.59

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Been Looking For It

It has taken three test of resistance provided by the summer highs at or just above $3.02, but prices finally the result that the market was hinting at through most of the summer. I doubt the market is going to get on a rocket up to $5.00 but this week should provide insight as to how the rally will behave. Due to over-bought conditions currently (see Weekly) would favor a retracement to the breakout level or in the vicinity.

Major Support:$2.83 $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.02-$3.04,

Major Resistance $3.24, $3.485, $3.536, 3.59

Break Out Confirmation

Daily Continuous

My apologies for missing publishing yesterday — did not set up the server properly– but you missed nothing as my diatribe just spoke about the failure of the move on Wednesday by closing under the key resistance area (after stopping me out on the run). Said the same thing going into the storage report that the selling around $3.00 had a close and low risk opportunity and yesterday proved that it was low risk. The one element that the market provided was the potential confirmation of a bias change with a high volume (daily) directional bias change. It is now imperative for the market to finally confirm this be holding most of the gains through the weekly close.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.24, $3.536, 3.59

A Rebound — Looking to Test Key Resistance

Daily Continuous

Not since February has the market broke the resistance provided by the highs at $3.027. Once, in early August, prices tested the area but failed. Now, on the expectations of winter coming, it seems prices are wanting to test this zone again. Time will tell but the good element of this trade is low risk — selling the zone with tight stops just beyond.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.99-$3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Prices Decline Well Short of Gap

Daily Continuous

Weakness prevailed but the declines fell short of serious tests of the support provided by the expiration gap. This week should continue to provide clues as to the gap and the term of its existence.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $2.99-$3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Does the Gap Close?

Daily Continuous

Go into the expiration of the Oct contract and expectations on the upcoming month in the Weekly section. From a daily standpoint — would expect the expiration gap to be challenged during the coming week. This will likely set up the lower end for the Nov range of prices.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $2.99-$3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Premium Suppressed

Daily Continuous

I guess I should lighten the suppression comment to “narrowed slightly”. Not much else to say versus the Weekly expectations published last weekend.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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