Category: Daily Call

Storage Pressures Further

Daily Continuous

Don’t think I am going out on a limb here but I think the August contract is going to follow the previous contracts by being well-offered into expiration. What is getting more interesting is the Winter ’25 summer ’25 spreads during this decline.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Testing, Testing and Testing

Daily Continuous

Last Week’s lows continue to provide the near term support for the declines to help establish the low end of the range. This range should hold the majority of trade for the upcoming few weeks. Spread traders may want to look at some of the winter 2024/5 trades in the coming weeks as the low end of the range occurs.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Finding Support

Daily Consolidation

Not sure how long this run will last, but it is good to see some rebound (as discussed in the Weekly). It may just be providing trade a new place to short or it may be gradually starting to run in small steps.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Some Slight Consolidation

Daily Consolidation

Declines slowed and consolidation at the lows of last week provided the market a chance to take a breath from the oversold RSI at the lows. Higher volumes on the declines and gaining open interest during the declines suggest that the market is expecting additional extensions lower.

Major Support:, $1.848, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.39, $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Further Collapse

Daily Continuation

What timing the market continues the declines and I found internet service for a while. A big target on conventional support presented by the highs of calendar March and April ($2.009 –$2.092) and then the “expiration” gap left after May gas went off the board ($1.848 –$1.913, ). My thoughts (as suggested the other day) were that those targets will remain untested until later in Q3 (sometime around the annual Labor Day lows) but not right now. It may prove noteworthy that September traded a lower low while it was losing the little bit of premium that had been awarded over August. I still believe (though feeling lonely) that still expect a July rally from a post – Independence Day low.

Major Support:, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Declines May Form the Q3 Low

Daily Continuous

Was expecting the annual Q3 low to occur either side of Labor Day but the way this market is behaving — it may happen in July. Will have to look into how many times that has happened while traveling this week. Headed to Montana and the cell / internet service will be spotty until next Tuesday. We all need a week off and I will be enjoying mine. Will check in when available — in the mean time — sell premium and should the market reverse (expected) will be highlighting it if possible.

Major Support:, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.26, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Still Trying To Define Low End of Range

Daily Continuous

Still trying to have the market confirm the low end of the new trading range. The declines do not confirm the support areas by significant divergences, and prices meander around, looking for a boost up or down. Seems like a great time to sell premium in the options market.

Major Support:, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.41-$2.31, $2.26, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Will Storage Bring Volatility

Daily Continuous

Spoke yesterday about a consolidation phase going on after the declines last week– lets see if the storage report will bring some volatility to the market in either direction. My guess would be no that we are in this range for a while.

Major Support:, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.41-$2.31, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Consolidation After Steep Declines

Daily Continuation

After last week’s rapid declines– the market seems to be developing a “consolidation” pattern at the lows but the declines may return. Not sure what the fundamental folks are tracking with the loss of demand and the loss of production due to the storm. That will play out next week. In the meantime play the historical trends and the range of the last week.

Major Support:, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.41-$2.31, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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Found an Initial Bounce

Daily Continuous

Was expecting some sort of slight bounce off of the declines last week and perhaps we got the the initial yesterday with the gains. Curious as to the demand destruction versus the shut-ins struggle for the traders with the storm– it is likely we will see it in the next day or two.

Major Support:, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.41-$2.31, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.44-$$2.502, $2.618, $3.00, $3.16

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