Category: Daily Call

Technically — A Bias Conversion

Daily Continuous

Discuss the effects of last week’s trade in the Weekly section, but suffice to say, that was a bullish trend to trade during the week. Not sure we are going to close the gap from this Jan but they may try to chew into that gap.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance: $2.148, $2.168-$2.411 (gap)

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Prices Remain Within June Range

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Mentioned in the Weekly earlier this week that the June contract would define its own range which it is and the current range (as in Weekly) remains $1.90-$2.15. As discussed this week will likely define the near term direction for bias.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $2.08, $2.148, $2.168-$2.411 (gap)

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Didn’t Like the Altitude

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Well, prices close above $2 but then spent yesterday retracing back under that key area. Problem for the bears is that prices didn’t collapse and rather found support above last week’s low for the June contract. Perhaps, that could be interpreted as a bullish divergence but would not take that to the bank. As mentioned yesterday — perhaps (as a trader), you need to take a time out and let the market define its intentions.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $2.08, $2.148, $2.168-$2.411 (gap)

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Rare Close Over $2

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A close above initial resistance is an interesting signal — the question will by how long does it hold the gains. Will this signal a bias change — this week will provide answers.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Where We Going

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During 2024 the gas market has left several “expiration” gaps. “Expiration” gaps are not uncommon. What is uncommon is if/when they go unfilled for any significant length of time. There was one back on 12/28 after January went off the board premium to February. That gap was filled during February’s first day as prompt. The next one was a big one and remains open between $2.168 and $2.441. March failed after narrowing the gap about a nickel (signalling an excellent indication that much lower prices were in store). That the gap will likely be filled, but not right now. Since the gap that followed February expiration, there have been two others and now likely a third. The first two (after March and April expiration’s) were filled in the following monthly trade. On Monday, if June opens unchanged there will be a $.281/dt daily continuation expiration gap (between $1.628 and $1.909)–and a weekly continuation expiration gap between $1.848 and $1.907. Due to the timing of contract expiration’s there hasn’t been one of those for a while but a weekly of anything is more significant than daily. Expect both will be filled sooner rather than later.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Expiration Day

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Here we are at expiration and the variances between prompt May and the rest of the market have become pronounced. My suggestion remains the same from yesterday.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

Expiring May Gets Crushed

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May got hammered while the rest of the summer was weaker but not to the extent of May’s declines. Now becomes the silly expiration process — I may have been wrong in not seeing the May expiration testing the lows of the previous two month’s expiration. Clearly, its in range now after yesterday’s declines. As you all know I do not venture with position going into option expiration nor contract expiration. My goal in this process is to establish good positions to sell in the options market.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Still Hanging at Resistance

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Prices closed the day at the high and key near term resistance area. Now what? Does it break out above (expect serious short covering) or just return to the low end of the recent range at $1.60). Lets watch with selling premium at higher levels.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Solid Run to Resistance

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Prices are now challenging the high end of the resistance for the May contract– likely stating that the action is headed to extend lower before expiration. Doubt the declines will match those of the March and April contracts capitulation but the trade has continued to be range trade so a challenge to resistance will be met with selling and a decline back into the range.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Some Evidence Developing

Daily Continuous

Discuss some of the elements that the market is starting to advertise as to future in the Weekly / Long term section, but most are light at this point so the likely hood of any break out is limited. May prompt has five days left and expect a complete closure of the gap from the April expiration but am not convinced of the expiration weakness that the last two expiration’s experienced. Volatility will return to the market but unlikely until power demand and expectations starts to rear it’s head.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,