Continue to Expand The Support Area

Daily Continuous

First off let me wish you all a wonderful weekend celebrating July 4th. I say weekend because this will be my last Daily until July 8th. Not much to say as prices continue to search for the low end of the range for the August contract. It will form and use that as a base for the rest of the month– whether or not it is the Q3 low is a different question.

Major Support:, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

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Wasting No Time

Daily Continuous

Per my comments yesterday — it seems the market is going to waste no time in testing and finding the support zones for the near term. The Cross-over has now occurred with the 50 day trading over the 200 day — will be interesting to see if the trade even cares or notices.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$2.64, $3.00, $3.16

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Soft Weekly Close — Key Cross-Overs Coming

Daily Continuation

Prices closed the week on the August lows and concluded that the Q2 high was confirmed with the double top ( July Contract) discussed previously. We are headed into a historically weak period of the year (Q3 lows) that have been discussed here for several years. Brought to attention some of the issues and ancillary technical problems that could effect the market in the coming months in the Weekly section. The market has placed itself at a important level and now will need to define the key support for the coming month.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

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The Premium For August Diminishes

Daily Continuous

Prices continued to decline and almost got to the expiration price of July gas before finding support and finding some gains. Need to watch how prices behave in the next day or two. The weekly expiration will provide us some indication as to bias.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

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Expiration Trend Continues

Daily Continuous

No surprise here– have discussed it in the Daily and Weekly sections about the previous monthly expiration’s to be well – offered into expiration and to expect the same behavior until it doesn’t. Sure enough the July process was very similar to the previous months– but now we have to wonder about the premium afforded the August contract and the early morning trade may provide some clues.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

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No Such Weakness — Yet

Daily Continuous

Little weakness yesterday as prices firmed after a Sunday night decline. Posting a gain it will be interesting to see if the strength continues through the full expiration process. Discussed the historical aspect of the recent expiration’s in the Weekly section so how the market behaves will provide some insight as to the future of natural gas prices.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

Expiration Should Bring Weakness

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Have discussed the trends of the last few months at expiration and it is clearly a bearish bias. Should it continue (expect another well offered contract) then prices will continue lower into the sub- $2.60 area.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

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Oops — Got Caught

Daily Continuous

Ok, I confess, wrote yesterday’s Daily thinking I would roll it over to today’s — little did I know that prices were going to drop into the low end of the range. — Was not going to update (limited internet sources) but have decided to use my mobile hot spot on the phone. Nothing has changed except that prices declined to the low end of the range regardless of Storage.

Storage release should give us one of two options — if it is bullish to expectations, prices are likely to test the double top of the July contract seen below:

Daily Prompt July Contract

On the other side of the expectation potential will be a bearish report sending price back to the low of the July trading range (down to $2.70-$2.50).

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.944, $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

Storage Should Provide Future Bias

Daily Continuous

Storage release should give us one of two options — if it is bullish to expectations, prices are likely to test the double top of the July contract seen below:

Daily Prompt July Contract

On the other side of the expectation potential will be a bearish report sending price back to the low of the July trading range (down to $2.70-$2.50).

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Rocking Slowly to Resistance

Daily Continuous

After testing support earlier this week, prices showed some strength and crawled up to enter some of the near term resistance around $2.94-$3.00. We have a storage report that may effect prices– but I doubt it will have impact on the longer term bullish market bias.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support : $2.944, $2.64, $2.448, $2.168, $2.12, $2.00, $1.967- $1.94
Major Resistance:
$3.00, $3.16

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