Category: Daily Call

Trading Range Expands to the Downside

Daily Continuous

Two days and a dollar later, the declines are setting up for the low side of the range to be established. Mentioned yesterday — not sure how low the range will expand to– but prices have now declined to the high side of the range that was established in Nov trade.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.901, $5.01, $5.325, $5.37

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Expected Price Retrace Occurs

Daily Continuous

Yesterday’s reaction to Friday’s action was predictable (per the Weekly comments) as the over bought market needed to correct and retrace some of the Friday gains. Had a solid (and profitable) decline in prices and not sure the declines are over as the retracement might continue for a few days (range modifications need to be established).

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.901, $5.01, $5.325, $5.37, $5.49

Bullish Bias Close But…

Daily Continuous

I discuss many of the events that occurred last week in the Weekly section so I will not repeat here. Last week was instrumental in defining an expanding range and a bias change to the near term market. But it also revealed some issues going forward that I urge you to read. For now, on Sunday night, the market seems to be bringing some “reality” back to the trade. Let this correction play out as it may reflect another range change.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.901, $5.01, $5.325, $5.37, $5.49

Big Day For Bulls

Daily Continuous

It is not often that you see prices decline into a storage release and then when the release announces a more bearish withdrawal than expected, prices rally to set new highs. My guess is that the sellers are on their heals. The weekly charts show a market over-bought (RSI at 86+) and the market is currently well above the 2 standard deviations beyond the 20 week SMA. Bulls should be cautious at these levels of technical extremes. Not saying the run is over- but caution is advised.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.901, $5.01, $5.325, $5.37

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A Close Right On the Resistance

Daily Continuation

Prices decided to close the day on top of the resistance level at $5.01. Now there is a significant area for prices to run into issues between $5.01 and the July ’22 low of $5.325. I am expecting some small retracement back under $5.00 before the next move up should prices want to continue the run

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.901, $5.01, $5.325, $5.37

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Slowly Moving Ahead

Daily Continuous

The move yesterday was a slow continuous gain in prices — it is becoming more evident that the mentioned test of $5.00 and prices will likely require additional weather forecasts bring comfort to the bull’s position.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.73-$4.75. $4.901, $5.01

Dec High Yet to Come

Daily Continuation

Suggested yesterday that the test and close of last week signaled the potential for prices to test the high from July at $5.01, depending on the response to last week’s close. The trade yesterday, confirmed that the gains will likely test that zone as prices retreated in the early trade only to find the footing and buyers necessary to settle higher than Friday’s close.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.73-$4.75. $4.901, $5.01

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Strong Weakly Close Light Volume Expect Slight Retrace

Daily Continuation

Discuss the Holiday trade and associated effects on price in the Weekly section. Would expect a retracement in the gains as the market is over-bought on a weekly basis (technically) and the light volume close is suspect.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.73-$4.75. $4.901, $5.01

No Charts

I refer to the Weekly section for the Daily as I am unable to download my charts while traveling for the holiday. Summarize, expiration will like test the low side to the range developed during Nov. but the decline in open interest may provide some volatility in the near future.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.73-$4.75. $4.901,

Strength Before Storage Data

Daily Continuous

Startled to see the strong rally going into the storage release but it represents the underlying strength that gas is riding this month. Storage expectations are laying on the first withdrawal of the season. Perhaps, that is the reason for the strength.

Major Support: $4.219-$4.139,$4.083,$4.055,
Minor Support : $4.46-$4.42, $3.75,$3.65
Major Resistance: $4.73-$4.75. $4.901,

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