Category: Daily Call

Nov Contract Ready to Retire

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Am headed to visit my granddaughter tomorrow and that will prevent my from writing a Daily for Thursday — but no issues as most of you know my attitude about the market either side of expiration. I do not trade the market as it is suspect to trade variances and influence not helpful to technical analysis. What I will leave you with is watch the ranges — especially the soon to develop range in the Dec contract over the next two days.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Dec Premium Reduced

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Discussed the premium being afforded in the Weekly and the market chose to narrow that yesterday as the prompt rallied and Dec basically went nowhere (down during the morning). For this reason my suggestion is to watch the Dec price action and should it establish a “flooring” behavior build some positions accordingly. If you are negative in bias then play the spread to Jan accordingly.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

Should Be Interesting Expiration

Daily Continuation

For many of the ideas highlighted and discussed in the Weekly section — This week should provide some valuable information on bias how November will trade with the Dec as prompt. Continue to look for the ranges that develop especially with the Dec contract.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Interesting Trade

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The market rebounded momentarily and rallied only to collapse over the last few hours– looks like the market stays in the range where it seems to be comfortable.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Gains Hold

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Price gains of the last three days held firm yesterday before the storage data release. While not establishing a higher high (above the Sept high), the action provided some support for the recent run, creating the potential base for further gains. The response will likely be established after the release.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Prices Continue to Rock in Late Trade

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Price action was somewhat subdued during the trade day, extending Monday’s gains but I am startled to see the late action extend prices even higher. My fundamental friends will tell me that the forecast showed some cooler weather in either the long term or immediate forecasts, which is fine — I am just going to mention that prices are now starting to challenge the high end of the range (continuous chart above) from September’s trade. Will wait to see how this adventure turns out before calling the bias.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Forecasts ?

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Read in the press that the rally yesterday was all about the weather forecasts that modified cooler over the weekend. Oh–Ok. Perhaps that had something which added to the technical indication which showed another test of support at the low end of the range — only to fail. Yes, the weather issues may have provided the gasoline to force the shorts to cover– but the volume and price movement is more of a convincing argument to this analysis. The range for the Nov contract has likely been established.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support : $3.16
Major Resistance: $3.19, $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Clueless on Direction

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Can’t explain and won’t try– as discussed in the Weekly section the price declines took prices down below support with technical expectations alerting additional declines. OOOOpps as prices gaped opened Sunday night — I have no clue why only offer to trade the range that has remained.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$3.167, $3.19, $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Early Trade Closes Gap

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Price declines extended to the gap from the expiration– now the question is does the decline remain the focus with the storage release or are we running out of sellers at support as it has over the last few tests.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$3.167, $3.19, $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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Low Range Tested In Front of Storage

Daily Continuous

Prices inched downward yesterday and would expect today’s trade to test the bearish support from last month in the gap at $2.968 (weekly chart). We will start to get a idea of will this become the base for the upcoming Q4 run in prices.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$3.19, $3.39, $3.62, $3.80-$3.85, $4.168, $4.461,

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