Category: Daily Call

Sunday Night Rally Holds

Daily Continuous

Prices held and continued to gain on the late Sunday night trade. Bouncing above $3.00 may end up being a key break through resistance as prices are headed into a historical weak seasonal price period as discussed in the Weekly section yesterday.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Building Momentum

Daily Continuation

What started a couple of weeks ago, prices continued to strengthen last week and seem to be building momentum into the seasonal rally during Q2. The historical price action up to and after the Memorial Day holiday has to be respected (outlined in the Weekly section). Caution should be used during and building on the seasonal rally.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Storage Report — Little Effect

Daily Continuous

Report came in close to expectations and had little effect on directional bias. Still with in the range of late, prices have not pressed upon support and remains at the high end of the range. Patience continues to be the key.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Small Correction

Daily Continuous

Prices weakened some what and close just on the 50 day SMA mentioned yesterday–Be patient here to see if there is going to be additional selling.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Prices Break Above 50 Day SMA

Daily Continuation

Not since February has the price broken above and closed above the 50 day SMA. While clearly, bullish in bias I will wait until a confirmation of the gains during this week. Tests and closes above $3.00 will confirm the break out– should prices retrace and fail at this resistance watch for the higher low discussed here for a couple of weeks.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Patience Is the Call

Daily Continuous

Not a whole bunch of technical wisdom to through out to you — summarized it well in the Weekly section. Will just add the attention to a potential higher low that may come out of the current range trade. This event (when it happens) will provide a solid floor for prices to move higher.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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New Contract Same Range

Daily Continuous

Nothing new yet as prices remain in the last six week range. No new technical analysis theories. Play the range.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Failure At Resistance

Daily Continuous

Behaving as a commodity market should — prices rallied, established a short term test of resistance and now the market need to retrace and test the low end of the range. This test of support should set a higher low and that would identify a base that may be the beginning of a forming a base for additional rallies.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Seasonal Bias Change

Daily Continuous

Speak about the change in the Weekly section but am still waiting for a confirmation of the the bias conversion that I discussed last week. That will occur over time with some retests of the low end of the range discussed last week.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Gas Finds a Bid

Daily Continuous

Not sure of the source of the buying yesterday– it may have been related to the strength in Crude market recently, but the market may want to trade up to high side of the range that held the market of late. Eventually the market will build a base that will carry prices up to establish the Q2 high. Not sure if this the beginning of the basing– I would expect it to form from failed rallies — testing support but setting a series of higher lows.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736