Category: Daily Call

Patience Is the Call

Daily Continuous

Not a whole bunch of technical wisdom to through out to you — summarized it well in the Weekly section. Will just add the attention to a potential higher low that may come out of the current range trade. This event (when it happens) will provide a solid floor for prices to move higher.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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New Contract Same Range

Daily Continuous

Nothing new yet as prices remain in the last six week range. No new technical analysis theories. Play the range.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Failure At Resistance

Daily Continuous

Behaving as a commodity market should — prices rallied, established a short term test of resistance and now the market need to retrace and test the low end of the range. This test of support should set a higher low and that would identify a base that may be the beginning of a forming a base for additional rallies.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Seasonal Bias Change

Daily Continuous

Speak about the change in the Weekly section but am still waiting for a confirmation of the the bias conversion that I discussed last week. That will occur over time with some retests of the low end of the range discussed last week.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Gas Finds a Bid

Daily Continuous

Not sure of the source of the buying yesterday– it may have been related to the strength in Crude market recently, but the market may want to trade up to high side of the range that held the market of late. Eventually the market will build a base that will carry prices up to establish the Q2 high. Not sure if this the beginning of the basing– I would expect it to form from failed rallies — testing support but setting a series of higher lows.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

June Should Trade to May

Daily Continuous

June maintained a slight premium to the expiring May contract, but that premium is likely to eliminated early in June’s life as prompt. The market is developing the Q2 lows and this week will clearly be the first attempt at establishing those lows.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Testing the Lows

Daily Continuation

Can’t get more bearish going into expiration (options today, May on Tuesday) as prices are testing the support zone that has remained firm for a long period of time. A contrarian would suggest that prices may rise. I will remain committed to not trading May but rather look at some summer spreads as prices continue to decline.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Support Breaks???

Daily Continuous

After the storage data gave strength to the bears, taking price down to and breaking the zone.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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No Bias Definition

Daily Continuous

No change in the range or the establishment of a bias change. As mentioned add positions on tests of support.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.00 $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Headed to Test Support

Daily Continuous

Even with the high close last week, the expectations were that prices would return to declining bias and that is happened yesterday. The question now is concerning how many bears want to take prices back to last week’s low (also the low from Oct,24) just to find a similar result. Take advantage of declines to support as discussed previously.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.00, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736