Category: Daily Call

Prices Soften as Expected

Daily Continuous

Prices declined but recovered from some of the declines by day’s end. This leaves the contract starting to test some of the recent prompt contracts have established. While not conclusive, the rebound has brought some support that may allow for further gains.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Will Strength Continue

Daily Continuous

Went into the technical details of the rally last week in the Weekly section. Early trade on Monday and Monday night suggests the market is not comfortable with last week’s trade and expiration, as prices are declining off of the close on Friday. Due to the close a brief correction is clearly called for– the key issue is how far the correction will take prices down. Should the declines be rejected then the resistance around $3.16 will become critical.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Storage Release Supports Gains

Daily Continuous

It was clear that the storage release supported the recent gains and gave the momentum to challenge the $3.00 level. We shall see how far the momentum will carry the action but I would caution against loading up on this rally- rather wait and see how the holiday set up plays.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Expiration Eliminates Oct Premium to Sep

Daily Continuous

Discussed yesterday that the expiration may have unexpected support due to the amount of selling that occurred in the last couple of week. That support brought the weak Sep contract up to the Oct contract level that takes over as prompt tomorrow– just in time for a storage release. A brief pause to initiating new positions may be warranted.

Major Support: $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.843, $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Expiration

Daily Continuous

Not a lot has changed going into the expiration. The chart has rolled over to the October contract. The only observation I have is that the selling runs out during the trade day — it almost seems like all the selling for the last couple of seeks (creating the over sold condition) has created the need for some brief short covering support at the end.

Major Support: $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.843, $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Options First

Daily Continuous

Expiration of the September contract is upon us with options going out today. Yesterday tried to extend the lows only to find some support, likely from some folks covering earlier placed shorts. Would leave the market alone for now unless you are looking for some lows in the winter months as the trade is starting to catch the recent trend.

Major Support: $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.843, $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Spot Closes At It’s Lows

Daily Continuous

Prices opened Sunday fulfilling the expectation of lower prices during the expiration of the September contract as discussed in the Weekly area. Suggest reviewing those comments for not only the upcoming expiration, but also prices later in the year.

Major Support: $2.727, $2.648, $2.514
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.843, $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Storage Report on Que

Daily Continuous

Perhaps a brief response to the bearish date flooding the market, a small bounce took prices higher through the day. For bulls be cautious, for bears wait and and sell against any rally .

Major Support: $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.843, $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Declines Stall

Daily Continuous

I guess the storage report today won’t be as bearish as last week’s as the market ran low on sellers yesterday. touching the lows from Tuesday — there was no momentum to push prices lower. I suspect that there will be additional downside momentum today if the report is more bearish that current expectations– unlike last week where the seller’s came in before and there were none left when the report was released (at expectations).

Major Support: $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.843, $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Low End Range Tested/Broken

The new low for 2025 is now in the process of being completed as prices continued the declines and broke below previous trade lows. Can’t say if this softness is in anticipation of the storage data or just normal seasonal weakness around the Labor Day holiday– either way it is soft out there and few buyers currently. If you are an end-user (consumer of natural gas) you may want to look at the winter strip for gas as a hedge (perhaps Dec and Jan at least).

Major Support: $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.843, $2.97-$2.99-$3.00, $3.061,$3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.