Category: Daily Call

New Low for 2025

Daily Continuation

The trade low from yesterday was below the low from earlier in the year as prices fell below $2.99 for a few trades. The question now is how low with the bears take the market. Similar to 2020, the Q1 low was briefly broken in April before prices rebounded. Not convinced the market signals are the same a 2020 as we were going through an over supplied bias then. Six consecutive down trading days is starting to leave some over sold indicators. Selling should carry tight stops.

Major Support: $3.336, $3.16-$3.11-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

Sunday Trade Looks to Challenge Gap

Daily Continuous

Spoke about the market last week and the small extension to the declines in the Weekly section. Will be keeping the Daily short as just got back from a holiday dinner. Key is the challenge developing to close the gap in the early Sunday night trade and discussed the outcome of early move on Sunday night during the trade on Monday. Still sitting on the sidelines for a confirming technical move to define bias near term. This slow decline in prices still has not countered the bullish bias long term and seems to be a move to test support.

Major Support: $3.336, $3.16-$3.11-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

Another Test of Support

Daily Continuous

Not much to add to the Weekly comments and the Daily’s this week, its going to be a range going into the storage release.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.60, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

Range Drives Little Returns

Daily Continuous

The small range for prices (since the extraordinary range expansion last week) gives limited ability to drive returns other than the options market. Take what the market gives you– yesterday, did not even test the mid-term support area of $3.16 — be patient.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.60, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

Price Melt to Support

Daily Continuous

Prices started strong early testing resistance but then spent the day melting down to major support. Mentioned yesterday this is an “unstable” market and I will sit on the sidelines currently.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.336
Major Resistance: $3.60, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

So You Like Volatility

Daily Continuous

As a trader I love volatility and being the chance to take positions — looking for reward. Last week was out of my comfort zone but somewhat profitable. Discuss in detail the events of the week in the Weekly section but suffice to say being short from the previous week’s close was great until Wednesday (thanks for stops). Then price whipped around to destroy the folks that don’t use stops only to destroy the folks who came in long (with crude and other commodities) by sell off more at the end of the week. I am going to label last week as volatility based on non-gas issues and sit on the sidelines until definable risk and reward returns to the gas market.

Major Support: $$3.33, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.628, $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

Challenging the Lows From Earlier in the Week

Daily Continuous

Prices fell back near the lows from earlier in the week on the storage release. While the market continues to maintain a slightly bullish bias this year — there is clearly a discussion amongst the traders as to the accuracy of that bias. This market could be bought with options or contracts on pull-backs but keep the stops tight until the discussion becomes a statement.

Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

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Rebound?

Daily Continuous

Nothing like an economic rebound and crude rebound to support the gas market. Technical data points indicate a nice daily reversal but be careful with the inputs that brought this to fruition. Taking a day to watch the market may be the best call.

Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.742
Major Resistance: $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

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Prices Break Below Near Term Support

Daily Continuous

The declines (likely linked to the declines in crude and the US Dollar) may extend further but not sure they will challenge the bias base at $2.99 from earlier in the year. Starting to be oversold so tread lightly on the down side exposure.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.448
Major Resistance: $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

Gas Joins the Crude Declines

Daily Continuous

The natural gas market fell prey to the economic declines associated with the crude oil declines of late. The declines tested the lows from the middle of February just above the $3.60 level — now lets watch how much the negative momentum will carry prices.

Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.742
Major Resistance: $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

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