Category: Daily Call

Seasonal Bias Change

Daily Continuous

Speak about the change in the Weekly section but am still waiting for a confirmation of the the bias conversion that I discussed last week. That will occur over time with some retests of the low end of the range discussed last week.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Gas Finds a Bid

Daily Continuous

Not sure of the source of the buying yesterday– it may have been related to the strength in Crude market recently, but the market may want to trade up to high side of the range that held the market of late. Eventually the market will build a base that will carry prices up to establish the Q2 high. Not sure if this the beginning of the basing– I would expect it to form from failed rallies — testing support but setting a series of higher lows.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

June Should Trade to May

Daily Continuous

June maintained a slight premium to the expiring May contract, but that premium is likely to eliminated early in June’s life as prompt. The market is developing the Q2 lows and this week will clearly be the first attempt at establishing those lows.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Testing the Lows

Daily Continuation

Can’t get more bearish going into expiration (options today, May on Tuesday) as prices are testing the support zone that has remained firm for a long period of time. A contrarian would suggest that prices may rise. I will remain committed to not trading May but rather look at some summer spreads as prices continue to decline.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Support Breaks???

Daily Continuous

After the storage data gave strength to the bears, taking price down to and breaking the zone.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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No Bias Definition

Daily Continuous

No change in the range or the establishment of a bias change. As mentioned add positions on tests of support.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.00 $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Headed to Test Support

Daily Continuous

Even with the high close last week, the expectations were that prices would return to declining bias and that is happened yesterday. The question now is concerning how many bears want to take prices back to last week’s low (also the low from Oct,24) just to find a similar result. Take advantage of declines to support as discussed previously.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.00, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

Run Off the Lows

Daily Continuous

After testing the mid-term support zone, prices found a bid to settle the week up (rare as that is). Go into some of the implications from that event in the Weekly section– from a daily technical perspective, I am going to seek some length (using options) on the additional retests of support. We may be running out of sellers in the coming weeks.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $2.92-$3.00, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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No Technical Changes

Daily Continuous

Not much changed from yesterday’s comments.

Major Support: $2.622, $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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Serious Support Test

Daily Continuation

The price decline continued and tested the intermediate term support levels. The declines found some bids but not sure how long it last. May be a good time to use options for some lower risk income.

Major Support: $2.640-$2.57
Minor Support/Resistance : $2.87-$2.84, $3.16-$3.148, $3.136, $3.02-$2.97
Major Resistance: $3.35, $3.486-$3.494, $3.567, $ 3.736

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