Category: Daily Call

Quiet Day on the Farm

Major Support: 1.611
Major Resistance: $1.98, $2.029,$2.08-$2.10

Well that Daily got some comments and some of you sent links trying to explain why the market was finding support — Thank you for your efforts. I believe that he market is finding support, just as it has every year, as the results of winter end and summer begins during the second quarter. Again, I do not follow supply and demand, but believe that supply and demand is interpreted in the price action. It seems that the balance may be coming tighter and that is why prices are finding muted support. Close above the 10 day average (big whoopie) but this support and resistance test game is far from over.

Where Did the Buying Come From

Daily Continuous Chart

Major Support: $1.611
Major Resistance: $1.98, $2.029,$2.08-$2.10
Minor Resistance: $1.883

What is up with this movement— some of the physical traders are questioning me on why prices are rising.  No clue from the physical perspective as I don’t look or care about storage etc.  Prices are rising so far this week because markets need to test support and resistance and gas is trying to test resistance after testing support last week.  One physical trader said I was way off on 1.7 TCF for ending inventories—— DUH—- that was the low end of expectations (from what I hear) and the reason I sighted it was “who cares”, the weather forecasts and storage ending inventories are built into the market currently. Does 1.7 or 1.9 make any difference to the enormous short position currently in the market. Where do some of you think the current short position came from— (sarcastic rhetorical question).   

As Expected Support Tested and Broken

Major Support: $1.611
Major Resistance: $1.98, $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437, $2.48-$2.52, $2.716-$2.755
Minor Resistance: $1.901, $1.994, $2.21

As you can tell from the picture I have changed the format of the charts and hope to hear any comments you have regarding the change. Trying to make them more effective for the reader. I thank all of you who have commented.

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Support Likely to Be Tested

As you can tell from the picture I have changed the format of the charts and hope to hear any comments you have regarding the change. Trying to make them more effective for the reader. I thank all of you who have commented.

Prices closed the week in the middle of the price range. The CFTC report on Friday showed the Managed Money shorts continuing to add to the record short position. To me, in spite of the fundamentals looking terrible for the near term— this market is screaming for a correction to punish some of the late shorts. Not sure what will cause it — but greed would be a good starting point.

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Prices Firm

Major Support: $1.83, $1.611
Minor Support: $1.812
Major Resistance: $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437, $2.48-$2.52, $2.716-$2.755
Minor Resistance: $1.98, 1.994, $2.21

As you can tell from the picture I have changed the format of the charts and hope to hear any comments you have regarding the change. Trying to make them more effective for the reader. I thank all of you who have commented.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Continue the Range

Major Support: $1.83, $1.611
Minor Support: $1.812
Major Resistance: $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437, $2.48-$2.52, $2.716-$2.755
Minor Resistance: $1.98, 1.994, $2.21

As you can tell from the picture I have changed the format of the charts and hope to hear any comments you have regarding the change. Trying to make them more effective for the reader. I thank all of you who have commented.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Hmmm Prices Seem to Be Gaining Strength

Major Support: $1.83, $1.611
Minor Support: $1.812
Major Resistance: $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437, $2.48-$2.52, $2.716-$2.755
Minor Resistance: $1.98, 1.994, $2.21

As you can tell from the picture I have changed the format of the charts and hope to hear any comments you have regarding the change. Trying to make them more effective for the reader.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Prices Return to Support

Major Support: $1.83, $1.611
Minor Support: $1.812
Major Resistance: $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437, $2.48-$2.52, $2.716-$2.755
Minor Resistance: $1.98, 1.994, $2.21

As you can tell from the picture I have changed the format of the charts and hope to hear any comments you have regarding the change. Trying to make them more effective for the reader.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Is This Strength?

Major Support: $1.83, $1.611
Minor Support: $1.812
Major Resistance: $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437, $2.48-$2.52, $2.716-$2.755
Minor Resistance: $1.98, 1.994, $2.21

The lowest expiration since March ‘16 was immediately met with more selling when March took over as prompt. History tells us that March has tendency of trading a high or a low as prompt during the first week or ten days after February expiration. According to the CFTC data on Friday the Managed Money shorts expanded their short position last week and the market already has an oversold condition. This market is screaming for a short covering rally though it may be brief.

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Bears Continue Quest

Major Support: $1.83, $1.611
Major Resistance: $2.08-$2.10, $2.34, $2.437, $2.48-$2.52, $2.716-$2.755
Minor Resistance: $1.98, 1.994, $2.21

A comment from a subscriber today caught my interest, “will they (the bears) run out of money?” Good question cause I am sure the short positions will increase with the CFTC this week. We have seen this behavior before and it is just a matter of time or maybe this time is different and prices are headed to $1.50. I will not promote that bet just yet as the market is over sold from the momentum indications.

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