Category: Daily Call

The Chart above does not reflect the open last night, rather I wrote a Daily on Sunday morning only to have to re-write this Daily because of the open. Prices gaped lower on the open down to $2.256 before finding some minor buying taking it back over $2.32. This could be a very volatile week (discussed last week) as there is an expiration and with light trade associated from the Holiday. Not sure if this decline will have an impact on the longer term analysis discussed here three weeks ago. Will be watching for that and will alert you to any adjustments if they occur.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.162
Major Resistance: $ 2.54, $2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.798

Prices creeping higher into new zones and are now challenging to get into the $2.80’s. Discussed in the long term section some of my thoughts about this run in prices. The gains of late are likely due to forecasts and demand expectations and how long those will continue is unknown. The other variable that you should watch is the volatility I have discussed this week. Volume daily is declining so moves may occur of less volume due to Holiday period.

This will be my last Daily until Dec 28th and I hope that all of you have a Merry Christmas and a wonderful Holiday period. I thank you for your business.

The history of December action commenced last week and will likely continue for this week and next. Open interest changes flatten, volume declines and folks square their books for year end. The only issue that can occur with the declining interest in trade is volatility. Occasionally, this period can be characterized with an increase in volatility due to the reduction of participants. Regardless of bullish or bearish, keep stops tight through year end. It was interesting that the Managed Money short position was reduced significantly through last Tuesday (date of Report 12/15) as prices spun in the $2.60’s.

Support: $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.596, $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.798

As discussed in the Weekly area, prices continue to use the 20 week SMA as the near term support zone ($2.636 this week) and it is likely that the lows for the Jan contract have been established. Most folks trade on weather forecasts, which I have no clue of, so establish positions at the extremes of support and resistance.

Support: $2.636, $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.596, $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.798

Prices went out on the bid yesterday as prices got a boost in the late morning and held through the daily close. Perhaps, some of the strength was due to the big storm on the east coast, I will interpret the behavior as a probe building off of the recent gains. Unless the market has a “knee jerk” reaction that sends prices dramatically higher due to short covering, bullish trends begin with a series of slight gains. Now it will be important to see how the market reacts to the next storage stimulus.

Support: $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.596, $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.798

Very similar range to Monday as the market is waiting for new directional bias. It will likely come from weather forecasts and how the storage withdrawals match (or not) expectations. For now, barring any dramatic change, buy the dips around $2.60 and sell the respected (two days) resistance at $2.70.

Support: $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.596, $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.649, $2.798

Prices opened Sunday night at $2.658 and the trade throughout the day stayed within a small range. The action did manage to close the gap that was created from the Friday high to yesterdays low. After closing the gap prices immediately reversed higher to finish the day with a nine penny gain. Not sure how much of yesterday’s gains were do to short covering from late / weak short positions, as the data has not been released, looking at the action- I would be hesitant to call it short covering. This looks like a small rally (four consecutive higher highs) not sure why but the market is saying it will go higher until it does not.

Support: $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.649, $2.798

The action last week finished firm with prices closing the week at the highest close since Dec 2nd. Went into expiration expectations, later in the month, in the long term section but would look for further gains this week. The CFTC data showed speculative shorts increased positions by a significant margin in positions reported effective last Tuesday. This could provide the fuel for a significant rally on little fundamental information sometime in the future. Until that proves itself the range between $2.80-$2.40 should be the support and resistance.

Support: $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.649, $2.798