Category: Daily Call

I could not resist one of my readers sarcastically mentioned that the run looked like it was consolidating the gains from Monday – needless to say I kept the chuckle between us. One other client mentioned that the market looked tired (again I took it as sarcasm) – really?– its been doing nothing but range trading between $2.69 and $2.50 for over a week– if that tires a market out then traders should seek a new job. What can be said about this market is it seems to seeking a “new mini-range” all within the greater range from last fall and will likely define the key resistance in short order (my bet on Thursday). This form of quiet time in natty is a great time to sell premium.

Support: $2.52, $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.713-$2.72, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Was expecting more volatility (perhaps light short covering) on a break above $2.72– little occurred. The total volume was slightly less than last Friday — indicating continued complacency in the nat gas world. Keep in mind that according to the CFTC data the large chunk of short positions occurred as prices declined off of the $3.00 area in Feb, so perhaps the folks aren’t squirming yet. Would look to play this little rally for a day or two more, but expect the market to correct a little as it has a series of higher daily closes.

Support: $2.52, $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.713-$2.72, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Once again the market is making a subtle alert to its longer term intentions by closing near the highs last week and opening stronger on Sunday night. Call me a cynic, but I will wait for confirmation today with a close above this key area that has held resistance for several weeks. Not to say it may be a break out as discussed in the Weekly area on the website — but on a daily basis — need some proof of strength.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.713-$2.72, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

The volatility after the release caught some shorts off-guard but prices could not pierce the resistance of recent movements at $2.70. Is there enough to garner a break or not. Also that area as a great area for shorts with some tight stops just above. Play as you see fit.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.713-$2.72, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Prices opened and rocked higher only to give up all the gains by the day’s end. Hoping some volatility and directional bias occurs on the storage release today but not holding my breath. Natural gas is likely to stay in the range from $2.80-$2.40 for the next month or so– I would like to see a rally up to $2.80 in order to potentially flush some shorts.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

After complaining about the lack of directional bias in trade of late, the price action yesterday provided a slight directional bias. Trade still remains within the range and this move can easily be defined as a test of the range resistance. Prices will need to break (closing basis) above resistance to formulate the next move.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Each day I come in and open my charts hoping to find some directional bias to the market– maybe a break out or break down — don’t care but what is the genre — another tight range trade day with no volatility. The problem is exacerbated because crude is behaving similarly– those are the two favorite commodities for me to trade. Guess corn will be calling.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Quiet trade continues to haunt the nat gas market with last week’s low not really seriously challenging the mid-term support levels before rebounding. Early trade last night shows the market stronger. Don’t put a lot of money chasing Sunday night rallies. Went into some of the longer term aspects of the reduced volatility and market impact in the Weekly section, suffice to say that I am not convinced of long term additional significant declines considering the current status of the market (per Weekly section). Play the range.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Interesting that the volume rose a little yesterday as the prices held firm on the storage release that was well within expectations. This market has been consolidating for nearly two months (though within different ranges) with open interest very close (within 4,000 contracts) to where it was on March 8th. Volume has had some good days and some terrible days and yesterday’s volume was the third largest since March 8th. What to do — patience and buy the dips with tight stops as I mentioned earlier in the week. It is not conclusive that this market has the commitment to do diddly.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Well, I warned you that prices had not accomplished much with the declines and had to prove the point by breaking down through serious support levels. No such event and I did not even need the stop losses. Market should now test the resistance area and remain in this consolidation process.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806