Category: Daily Call

Price action remained strong through the day, confirming the opening dime increase. I am sure there was some reason for the bullish gains, but I am more interested to see if the extension can garner the support to challenge resistance at the 50 day SMA ($2.66). A break above that key average may allow for prices to run up to $2.80 as there was not significant consolidation in the $2.70’s.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.66, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.547-$2.566, $2.806

The declines of last week tested intermediate support (see Weekly section) and finished at the lows. This weakness would suggest additional weakness as price started on Sunday, but as recent trends have shown, how the market closes (weekly), does not necessarily suggest how it opens and this week continues the trend as prices are up nearly a dime. I still submit that the market is range bound with the February contract, the only issue remains the lows with last week making the first argument.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.547-$2.566, $2.806

I know the storage report is released today but the market doesn’t seemed that concerned about it. My thoughts continue to be that prices will likely continue to test the lows but will be subject to “knee jerk” reactions from weather forecasts. The recent range is intact near term ($2.44-$2.673), with the only expansion toward the downside.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.547-$2.566, $2.806

The first stop in the declines stopped yesterday at $2.454 (not sure why) but they garnered support and rallied at the close of the trade day. I have been calling for a test of support for the last week, not sure whether the tests are over or not but we are starting to see some support areas that have low risk buying opportunities. The range continues (between $2.25 and $2.80) and the market has not shown me any reason for variance.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.547-$2.566, $2.806

As mentioned in the Weekly section of the web site- the gap that had been in the charts since the first trade day of 2021 was closed yesterday with the declines. Prices are not oversold and look to want to test some significant support zones. Key is the Dec low of $2.238 as a break below will likely open significant declines. A break below $2.516 will open up a potential “quick trip” through the $2.40’s.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.547-$2.566, $2.806

An abbreviated edition today as most folks are not in the office, rather celebrating the holiday. Prices opened Sunday night with a $.10 decline, then retraced some of those declines. Anything can happen on holidays when the trade is extremely light. Look for the recent range to remain in place but be careful if you are in this market today.

Support: $2.566, $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.547, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

A full circle trade day as price jumped at the start — only to give it through out the trade day. Similar action to Tuesday. I do not consider a decline to $2.70 as a definitive test of support — but I may wrong. Wrote yesterday about the goals of these declines (mentioning the $2.70 area as the initial zone) and nothing today has changed those opinions.

Support: $2.566, $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.547, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

Finally got the declines but they came no where near the levels to define the market mid term, rather just re-affirmed the recent trade range. Have sent out a note to the long range clients to watch this market as it hasn’t gone down when demand forecasts looked weak (last two weeks) and prices have remained firm. It also bothers me that the next 6 months trade in a $.15 window. To my memory (declining as it is) I can’t remember this type of differed set up to the prompt Feb contract.

Support: $2.566, $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.547, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

Prices challenged resistance that I did not consider as it hit the highs from Nov ’19 (see Chart below) which had long since been traded through but I left it on the Weekly chart:

From the highs, the market reversed, gradually melting down and then collapsing at the end of the trade day. Not sure what spooked the rally up to the highs, but now the market has successfully tested resistance, expect the market to test support. Question is which level of support- The gap from the beginning of the year should be included in the longer term mix– but before that look at the area either side of $2.70 to provide near term support.