Category: Daily Call

Seemed like everyone was comfortable with the storage release, now it is time for the market to focus on the next move. The lack of support to run prices up, combined with the lack of price action down leads me to believe this market needs time to decide.

Major Support: $2.496
Minor Support: $2.388-$2.415
Major Resistance: $ 2.905, $2.928

In the early morning — prices declined to $2.425 but when other folks got into the office prices found some light support (likely some modest short covering from those who had sold it down to $2.425) to carry price action during the day. Not sure why that area held support (a penny off of my range of support) but this is not an exact science. Today is storage day and all sorts of volatility is quite likely. Looking at it from a large picture– the winter is still a little extended to the upside and the differentials between some of the months provides a cautious approach. Lets see where this storage report takes us.

Major Support: $2.544, $2.518-$2.496
Minor Support: $2.388-$2.415
Major Resistance: $ 2.905, $2.928

October stayed volatile through the end of its life, nice $.15 range. Now we trade Nov and it seems just a tad above the gas prices of late. Granted a futures contract is the “expectation” of prices but currently, prices seem to be running into high side resistance. The market behavior is suggesting that there may be some softness coming but I would not expect significant declines.

Major Support: $2.752-$2.729, $2.544, $2.518-$2.496
Minor Support: $2.603
Major Resistance: $ 2.905, $2.928

Expiration price movements are always a crap shoot and this one is no different, especially after the last two week’s volatility. The Nov contract responded to the gyrations of October but were not as severe. The declines did test the major support zones two weeks ago but failure there allowed for a rally through the remainder of the week. This area (trend line off of the July low and the September low) should be tested in the early phase of Nov taking over as prompt during the upcoming week.

Major Support: $2.752-$2.729, $2.544, $2.518-$2.496
Minor Support: $2.603
Major Resistance: $ 2.905, $2.928

October shows strength during the day and Nov and Dec maintain premiums, for the most part. Today will lead to options expiration, but with all of the volatility and whiplash this week, not sure how many positions still have to be covered. Next week all Support and Resistance will focus on the November contract.

Major Support: $1.864-$1.852, $1.768-$1.70
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $ 2.162-$2.18, $2.275
Minor Resistance:

Seems like a lot of volatility which was why it was suggested to get out of Oct as some folks are being whipped around and the action is far to risky for this analyst. My suggestion is let the “kids” play but focus on November as the differential will need to addressed to some degree. Not saying the premium has to close (2009 the spread did not close until late winter ’10) but there may be some weakness after the expiration process.

Major Support: $1.864-$1.852, $1.768-$1.70
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $ 2.162-$2.18, $2.275
Minor Resistance:

Suggested yesterday, that all of the support zones from the several moving averages around $1.97 would likely limit declines. That did not work out well yesterday. The spread to November widened so this expiration is up for grabs and gamblers. Expiration could be a washout like July expiration, or could rally on some late short covering and head back to $2.15– Unfortunately, technical data points don’t limit the potential.

Major Support: $1.864-$1.852, $1.768-$1.70
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $ 2.162-$2.18, $2.275
Minor Resistance:$1.964-$2.008

The breakdown to the 200 day (several other moving averages- see Weekly section) has created a regression to the mean and now expect another probe down (or two) but there are several support areas provided by the moving averages that should limit further declines. Discussed the expansion of premium afforded the November contract in the Weekly section. Expect the October contract to recover some of the losses from last week during trade this week. After the October contract expires, November may well feel some of the pressure that October endured last week.

Major Support: $1.974, $1.944-$1.924
Minor Support: $1.864
Major Resistance: $ 2.162-$2.18, $2.275
Minor Resistance:$2.37