Category: Daily Call

Been a while since I have seen this type of commodity tear across the board and the continued gains are quite unreal. Not sure if you have been trading them, but corn, soybeans and copper have presented opportunities that are remarkable. Getting a little frothy now, but perhaps gas is trying to catch the tail wind as it continues to hold support and show positive trade each day. With the general commodity run — it may become more difficult to find a good resistance area and would not try picking a top or shorting at this stage– safer to play the ranges in the small increments that the ranges have provided. Just not convinced that gas will not be swept up into the run of nearly all commodities.

Support: $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.897, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

The market provided a break out signal with the action breaking and closing above previous resistance– but did so with some caveats as volume and open interest declined. Discussed those events in detail on the Weekly analysis and won’t repeat here. Three days left in the May contract and my expectations are weaker but the support holding into expiration. Should the June contract maintain strength through the process — then that will have implications for the upcoming summer.

Support: $2.658, $2.52, $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.897, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

The storage report supplied some juice to the trade as we got a $.122 range in volatility yesterday. Guesses are that surprised some of the fundamental trade folks. Volume was slightly higher but nothing significant– so now the market is signalling more gains (not sure what data point will drive it) and we will have to watch where this rally subsides as it will likely be the initial resistance for the next month as well.

Support: $2.52, $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.713-$2.72, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

I could not resist one of my readers sarcastically mentioned that the run looked like it was consolidating the gains from Monday – needless to say I kept the chuckle between us. One other client mentioned that the market looked tired (again I took it as sarcasm) – really?– its been doing nothing but range trading between $2.69 and $2.50 for over a week– if that tires a market out then traders should seek a new job. What can be said about this market is it seems to seeking a “new mini-range” all within the greater range from last fall and will likely define the key resistance in short order (my bet on Thursday). This form of quiet time in natty is a great time to sell premium.

Support: $2.52, $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.713-$2.72, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Was expecting more volatility (perhaps light short covering) on a break above $2.72– little occurred. The total volume was slightly less than last Friday — indicating continued complacency in the nat gas world. Keep in mind that according to the CFTC data the large chunk of short positions occurred as prices declined off of the $3.00 area in Feb, so perhaps the folks aren’t squirming yet. Would look to play this little rally for a day or two more, but expect the market to correct a little as it has a series of higher daily closes.

Support: $2.52, $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.694, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.713-$2.72, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Once again the market is making a subtle alert to its longer term intentions by closing near the highs last week and opening stronger on Sunday night. Call me a cynic, but I will wait for confirmation today with a close above this key area that has held resistance for several weeks. Not to say it may be a break out as discussed in the Weekly area on the website — but on a daily basis — need some proof of strength.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.713-$2.72, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

The volatility after the release caught some shorts off-guard but prices could not pierce the resistance of recent movements at $2.70. Is there enough to garner a break or not. Also that area as a great area for shorts with some tight stops just above. Play as you see fit.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.713-$2.72, $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Prices opened and rocked higher only to give up all the gains by the day’s end. Hoping some volatility and directional bias occurs on the storage release today but not holding my breath. Natural gas is likely to stay in the range from $2.80-$2.40 for the next month or so– I would like to see a rally up to $2.80 in order to potentially flush some shorts.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

After complaining about the lack of directional bias in trade of late, the price action yesterday provided a slight directional bias. Trade still remains within the range and this move can easily be defined as a test of the range resistance. Prices will need to break (closing basis) above resistance to formulate the next move.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Each day I come in and open my charts hoping to find some directional bias to the market– maybe a break out or break down — don’t care but what is the genre — another tight range trade day with no volatility. The problem is exacerbated because crude is behaving similarly– those are the two favorite commodities for me to trade. Guess corn will be calling.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806