Category: Daily Call

Prices went out on the bid yesterday as prices got a boost in the late morning and held through the daily close. Perhaps, some of the strength was due to the big storm on the east coast, I will interpret the behavior as a probe building off of the recent gains. Unless the market has a “knee jerk” reaction that sends prices dramatically higher due to short covering, bullish trends begin with a series of slight gains. Now it will be important to see how the market reacts to the next storage stimulus.

Support: $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.596, $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.798

Very similar range to Monday as the market is waiting for new directional bias. It will likely come from weather forecasts and how the storage withdrawals match (or not) expectations. For now, barring any dramatic change, buy the dips around $2.60 and sell the respected (two days) resistance at $2.70.

Support: $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.596, $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.649, $2.798

Prices opened Sunday night at $2.658 and the trade throughout the day stayed within a small range. The action did manage to close the gap that was created from the Friday high to yesterdays low. After closing the gap prices immediately reversed higher to finish the day with a nine penny gain. Not sure how much of yesterday’s gains were do to short covering from late / weak short positions, as the data has not been released, looking at the action- I would be hesitant to call it short covering. This looks like a small rally (four consecutive higher highs) not sure why but the market is saying it will go higher until it does not.

Support: $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.649, $2.798

The action last week finished firm with prices closing the week at the highest close since Dec 2nd. Went into expiration expectations, later in the month, in the long term section but would look for further gains this week. The CFTC data showed speculative shorts increased positions by a significant margin in positions reported effective last Tuesday. This could provide the fuel for a significant rally on little fundamental information sometime in the future. Until that proves itself the range between $2.80-$2.40 should be the support and resistance.

Support: $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.649, $2.798

Not a lot of change in the trade yesterday from what I discussed this morning. Mini range waiting on new news or another shoe. This gap is developing as a key support zone due to the fact it opens up further declines as discussed. A breakdown may also break the bullish bias (long term discussed here for two weeks) the market has maintained if it is extended far enough. From my fundamental folks, I am not sure how much warmer the temps can get so any adjustment in the forecasts may bring light panic to the bears. Speaking of which, I took a first look at the “winter is over” idea and remembered 2015, 2016, and 2017 on the charts. I will break down the results in the long term section during the day tomorrow.

Support: $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.55, $2.649, $2.798

My apologies for not getting this out through the email– I had some server issues that prevented such.

The prices have developed into a mini-range between $2.50 and the gap from the Nov premium. Almost seems like the trade is waiting for the next shoe to drop (perhaps storage report). From a technical standpoint, buy in front of the area of key support ($2.38-$2.40) with stops tight. When and if prices break below, the trip to $2.10 should be quick with just a couple of support zones. Still looking at years when winter was “over” in December only to find a reversal of thought.

Discussed yesterday that the market seemed poised to test the gap from the November contract premium and that test occurred yesterday in a mild form. I have heard from many regarding the winter being over and prices are doomed– my memory reminds me of other Decembers when everyone was convinced winter was “over”. I will en devour to review recent history to establish if this comfort in trade is warranted.

Support: $2.425,$2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.162
Major Resistance: $$2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.55, $2.649, $2.798

It seems that the price action wants to challenge the gap at $2.37 from the premium afforded the Nov contract as it took over as prompt in Sept/Oct. That extension should be expected early this week and has started late Sunday night.

January completed a continuation “outside” week lower .  The January contract traded its third straight lower weekly high and then on Thursday closed below the November low.  Volume during the declines was the highest since the first week in August as prompt gas was breaking out higher and the eighth highest in all of 2020.

In the Weekly section, I discussed the short /intermediate term cycle is bearish and the market is behaving accordingly. Yesterday, prices confirmed the bearish bias and the market is now in a sell the rally mode. The consolidation pattern of the last few days was waiting for a break out or break down– the breakdown is now in place breaking below, and closing below, the Nov lows.

Support: $2.425,$2.373
Minor Support:
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.091, $3.151, $3.24,
Minor Resistance: $2.74, $2.887