Category: Daily Call

Price rally suffered slight break down to the close from the last Thursday’s rally off of the storage report. That initial test of support was a likely spot for prices to find. Now we start to evaluate the actual damage and power loss from the storm, which will likely keep prices volatile for the next couple of days.

Major Support: $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316,
Minor Resistance: $4.508-$4.485,
Major Resistance: $4.532, $4.66

This is a dangerous period for the market — Last weeks strong gains were tied to IDA and the expectations associated with it. Now we get the actual news of damage, combined with LNG restrictions and demand destruction. Prices open last night expanding to a new high, but this move was prior to any knowledge of the actual events associated from the storm. If buying looking for additional gains- keep stops tight as the elevator may decline swiftly. If selling looking for a correction, there are not numerous areas for support until you find the storage report lows (last Thursday) after the report was released. That event started this move higher (some might call it parabolic).

Major Support: $4.211, $4.156, $3.92, $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316,
Minor Resistance: $4.508-$4.485,
Major Resistance: $4.532, $4.66

That was just stunning as prices jumped back up to the highs of the month as options expired. Have no idea what the reasons (Gulf storms destroy demand) were and its rather irrelevant as prices are what they are. Needless to say, the rallies into expiration continues the trend this month and prices are not over bought, so additional gains could be made. Volume, yesterday, exploded and there was a period of consolidation (not as low as expected) previously, therefore this may be the initial run towards the Q4 run.

Major Support: $3.92, $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.205, $4.238, $4.266, $4.532

Was expecting slight retracement in prices to set up a rally into expiration as the market has done over the last few months (see Weekly), but this action looks like it wants to stay strong up and into expiration. This may be related to options that expire today– we will have to wait until the expiration occurs. I was interested that the market went up to just short of the $4.00 area (perhaps seeking option traders) before they melted down toward the close.

Major Support: $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $3.968, $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

That was not exactly what I was looking for. Perhaps, I am no the only trader on the block who has noticed and circled the recent strength of the expiration’s of late (defined in the Weekly section) as the market seemed poised for a test of support only to find early buyers. There will likely be additional declines, whether it is with the Sept or Oct contract remains to be seen.

Major Support: $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $3.968, $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

Price action seems to be following a similar pattern to last week with early Monday rally, holding prices near the high end of the range. Last week they stopped on Tuesday and Wednesday set up the low support challenge. Would not discount the trade history mentioned in the Weekly section, but perhaps a strong rally into expiration off of a retracement back to the low $3.70’s would keep the historical trend in place. Over all — still in the range between $3.72-$3.98– continue to play it.

Major Support: $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $3.968, $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

Discussed the recent history of expiration’s in the few month in the Weekly section — so enjoy the read. Trade last week provided great opportunities at support and then the failure at resistance all taking prices back to where they started. Similar action should be expected this week– perhaps inside last weeks range. Don’t see a major breakdown or breakout coming in the next 5 days — but you never know.

Major Support: $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $3.968, $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

Not sure what piece of news stimulated the late morning run in prices but the reason is meaningless. The facts are the market is behaving just the way it should after breaking through support earlier. Support has been tested now the prices should test resistance, but the question is where will the test occur– at the high end of the recent range ($4.02) or somewhere in the $3.90’s. It should happen this week.

Major Support: $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $3.968, $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

Signals showing the annual seasonal weakness continue with the declines yesterday setting a lower low. Continue to expect some sort of counter trend rally coming before expiration (likely). That rally should stay within the recent range but wherever it goes to — it may provide an area to sell into the rally for later in the fall.

Major Support: $3.821, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $3.968, $4.187, $4.205, $4.238

Prices extended lower and set a lower low — discussed that this is the pattern that should gradually take prices lower to test support. Will go into some of the targets for the decline in the Weekly area unless they become important prior to the weekend. Prior to that, a new range seems to be developing between $3.82 and $4.00 – play it.

Major Support: $3.87, $3.722, $3.58, $3.538-$3.511, $3.385, $3.368-$3.316, $3.198,
Minor Support: $3.821, $3.508-$3.485
Major Resistance: $4.187, $4.205, $4.238