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Category: Daily Call
Prices Break Below Near Term Support
Daily Continuous
The declines (likely linked to the declines in crude and the US Dollar) may extend further but not sure they will challenge the bias base at $2.99 from earlier in the year. Starting to be oversold so tread lightly on the down side exposure.
Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.448
Major Resistance: $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03
Gas Joins the Crude Declines
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Will Energy Weakness Pressure Gas
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Quiet and Developing Range
Daily Continuous
No break out or down after the storage release and the price action reflected the non-action by maintaining the recent range — nothing new for tomorrow. Keep the range trading on.
Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031
Trying to Define
Daily Continuous
Have been discussing the market trying to establish a base for the next bias direction, either up or down, and is the definition of a technical range trade that will likely hold for the near term.
Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031
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The Process Continues
Daily Continuous
Usually there are short – term trends between that support and resistance but when volatility is elevated those boundaries are defined by high volume highs and lows. For May gas there was a high volume low on 02/18 at $3.628, another on 03/03 at $3.810. It is pretty rare but in both cases high volume highs were traded on the following day at $4.326 and $4.588, respectively. In both cases the combined volumes of those two days is greater than any other two day period. The zone between the lows is definable support, between the highs is resistance. Volume is the energy that drives price higher…or lower. Volume on the day of the price spike to $4.901 was substantially lower than on the days that defined the zone of resistance (discussed in the Daily). The energy to drive prompt gas higher was simply not present, hence the breakout failed. Also note that volume was lacking on 03/27 when May tested the support and the breakdown failed. While, price and volume are doing the right things for prices to eventually move higher, a correcting substantial increase in volume is going to be required in order for that to occur. I stand that the market will need to consolidate and build for that sponsorship to develop and until, it is going to be range bound.
Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031
Supported Expiration
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Nothing New as Expiration is Upon Us
Daily Continuous
Nothing has occurred that wasn’t discussed in the Weekly and Daily on Monday– so I chose to be quiet. Nothing really happened yesterday that was dramatic or earth shattering to a technical interpretation but I did want to send a quick flag for the expiration– It should hold the March lows of $3.742 and if it breaks that level we may see a brief test of the major support sub $3.60 with the April contract or the May contract as it takes over as prompt.
Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031