Category: Daily Call

Fake to the Down Side

Daily Continuation

Did not publish last night as I was wondering if the 1st close below $3.00 was indicative of price bias in the immediate term or a “one-off”. The answer came in trade yesterday which held support and then rallied. The game is not over for an extension of the gains, but rather a rebound. What was more interesting was the gains in some of the winter months as the Sept prompt rallied. Sept, as prompt may have some volatility, but some of the winter contracts may preform better from the long side as we head into fall and winter. The downside needs to see additional momentum to the bias and not run out of steam (keep an eye on open interest).

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Light Sunday Trade Wants to Break $3.00

Daily Continuous

Went into expectations of the September contract in the early Aug period in the Weekly Section. Prices opened softer on Sunday night suggesting additional weakness during the trade day. Clearly at major support so I would not expect a major break down, rather an other test of support.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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New Prompt Same Range–Maybe Lower

Daily Continuous

September came out as prompt and immediately fell to the lows established by the August prompt in the last week. See no compelling reason to catch this falling knife rather for length or not convinced that the declines will be compelling. Sometimes the sidelines are inviting.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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New Prompt — New Range?

Daily Continuous

Expiration brought on a slight rally– we will have to wait for any follow through. We are at some lows maybe look to the winter months for long positions or prompt months for short postitions.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

Weakness Into Expiration Is the Recent Trend

Daily Continuous

Expect prompt August to be offered lower but likely recover into expiration as most prompts this year have…the last three settlements were $3.170, $3.204 and $3.261. Expect prompt gas to remain rangebound as it takes over as prompt and during expiration.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Rebound Off of Support Test

Daily Continuous

The declines neglected challenging the key support area and on the storage release rallied over $.10 but gave the gains up during the remaining trade. Still believe that any declines will be rejected at the support lows — that said would not load up on length.

Major Support: $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$3.16-$3.25, $3.43, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501

Testing the August Contract Lows

Daily Continuous

The initial test of the August low was met with expected support. That support may not suggest a rally to take prices to test resistance. The low test is not complete as the internals hint additional declines may be coming.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Testing August Low’s

Daily Continuous

As mentioned yesterday, personal family issues are going to minimize the analysis for the early part of the week. All I can say about yesterday’s and tomorrow’s trade will be seeking the lows of the calendar July with the August contract.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Continue Lower

Daily Continuous

Explain the brevity of the Daily due to some issues explained in the Weekly Section. While I wait in the ER for my dog it is evident that the market wants to trade lower tomorrow. Hang tough or keep playing the low end of the Aug range.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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A Brief Test

Daily Continuous

Prices tied to test and break the early July high only to fall back. Still looking at a quiet range trading market in this market at this point in the month.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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