Remember, the folks that have been buying each dip have just been smoked on the accelerated declines — so if you are looking for support on each dip — tread carefully. By the same token the market has not proven that each rally will be sold– guess we need some time to establish the “mood” of the traders and there machines.
Major Support:$7.36, $7.21, $6.60 Minor Support: $$6.60, $6.245, Major Resistance:$7.66, $7.725, $7.816, $7.955
Suggested in yesterday’s Daily that you may want to take a day to observe, which turned out to be wise. Prices rebounded over 40% before calming into a range trade between $7.40 and $7.60 for the majority of the day. The market seems to want to develop a range trade, but not sure a storage release will provide that type of environment to develop.
Major Support:$7.36, $7.21, $6.60 Minor Support: $$6.60, $6.245, Major Resistance:$7.66, $7.725, $7.816, $7.955
Mentioned in the Weekly about the decline during the previous week in an hour– yesterday’s decline from $8.60 to $7.086 happened in 30 minutes. That is an example of everyone hitting the exits at the same time– it gets crowded. Needless to say that it occurred in response to some news about the LNG facility, but regardless– what is more important is what comes next. Last time we had a headline decline prices immediately rebounded the next day an recovered a chunk of the previous day’s declines. Not sure this decline will find the recovery of last month so it may be prudent to sit this decline out for a day and see what happens.
Major Support:$7.36, $7.21, $6.60 Minor Support: $$6.60, $6.245, Major Resistance:$7.66, $7.725, $7.816, $7.955
Last week was quite something as a new Q2 high was traded on Wed, through the May high (prompt gas has now traded $6.128 or 173.3% above the December 30th – “Q1” low) and then through last week’s low. On Wednesday July dropped $1.119 (from 9.546 to 8.427) in just an hour. Yee Haw.
In past weeks the historical seasonal pattern of prompt gas between around the Memorial holiday (05/15 and 06/15) has been discussed. Over the years prompt gas has consistently traded a pre – Memorial Day high, fallen to a post – holiday/early June low and then rallied into mid – June. June before going off the board and July since has essentially followed the historical script with astounding and uncharacteristic volatility. The ten – years average of early June rallies is 16.65%. From Thursday’s (06/09) low July rallied 14.1%.
No stranger to wild rides — July started down, blew back up to nearly $9.00 only to find a few folks interested in selling there. From there it was immediate collapse below the open and finishing down on the day. Been discussing the volatility in this market and it is not leaving me wanted. Yesterday close just on the trend line support that has been discussed here for a couple of months— does it break below which would suggest a test of the earlier lows just above $8.00 or preform another bounce and off to the races.
Major Support:$8.283-$8.24, $8.12, $8.04 Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36, Major Resistance:$8.98-$9.00, $9.447, $9.60
Having issues with the internet while traveling — my apologies — Market down in Sunday night trade — not sure of any meaning. Continue to play to the ranges selling near $9.00 and buying dips especially into the low $8.60’s for now.
Major Support:$$8.73, 8.283-$8.24, $8.12 Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36, Major Resistance: $9.447, $9.60
Traveling today, Sunday, and the internet is sporadic. Prices declined on Friday after the close so would expect additional weakness on Monday. Will give more of an update to the coming week tomorrow for publish on Tuesday.
Major Support:$$8.73, 8.283-$8.24, $8.12 Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36, Major Resistance: $9.447, $9.60
Heard from many of you fundamental folks that the collapse two days ago was do to an explosion at an LNG facility that (I understand) will impact flows of gas in the US — allowing more gas to go into storage. Ok, I am with you so far but $1.50 loss– seems a little over board for 21 Bcf over the next three weeks. Nothing has changed during the morning hours (per information on the fire) — yet price rallied back to $9.00. Regardless of the fundamental impacts (they do not effect my diatribes) — if you need proof that this is a serious bull market run — you got it yesterday when the prices rebounded that quickly with little information. An element of trade that confirms my technical bias — is that prices did not hold below the trend line (discussed yesterday) on a daily closing basis. Rather, similar to the May 10th collapse, prices rallied back above the trend line. HMMMMM May 10th, June 9th — I am sure it is coincidence.
Major Support:$$8.73, 8.283-$8.24, $8.12 Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36, Major Resistance: $9.447, $9.60
Huge reversal during the mid-morning trade as the commodity funds got the call to liquidate the profits earned in the last month. The extension downward originally held the trend line off of the March May lows. Broken previously the market rallied and closed above the trend line. Watch for that confirmation today — does the break down last night hold during the day trade. This does not conclude the bull market bias but it is starting to effect the technical indicators.
Major Support:$$8.73, 8.283-$8.24, $8.12 Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36, Major Resistance: $9.447, $9.60
Suggested yesterday that a new was likely but was concerned that the break above did not hold during the day. That suggests a hesitation from those that are driving this train (bulls) to just push on. Not a lot of resistance between here and $10– so it should be a “convincing” trade. Just continue to buy dips, but leaving before trade ceases on the day. It is likely we will wake up and be down $.40– caution during this kind of volatility.
Major Support:$$8.73, 8.283-$8.24, $8.12 Minor Support: $8.065, $7.69,$7.36, Major Resistance: $9.447, $9.60
