Willis Bennett – Page 65

Counter Trade Rally Ends Just Over $7.00

October 10, 2022October 9, 2022

Prices rallied from that rising support off of the support from the 200 day and 40 week SMA’s and extended that rally through the previous week’s high. An “outside” week (trading through both of the previous period’s extremes) reversal is often characteristic of an intermediate term low (or high), but November was unable to hold on to/build on the rally gains. Prompt gas finished the week lower for the sixth straight week since trading the late August multi – year high just above $10. The closes of the last three weeks have been progressive lower, but are within $.093 ($6.841 – $6.748)

The last time a series of weekly closes were as closely bunched was during the construction of the December low. From week ending 12/17 through 12/31 there were three weekly closes between $3.669 and $3.760. Those “tight” weekly closes were an indication that after thirteen weeks the intermediate term downtrend from the October – Q4 high was “sold out”– The jury is out regarding this technical event.

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Confused

October 7, 2022October 6, 2022

A little confused tonight as the storage report came in bearish to expectations and is likely the first of a few bearish reports but prices started with strength and held on to a chunk of it throughout the day. The bearish traders should be scratching their heads as that was a a set up made for a retest of support. Perhaps we will get it today or early next week. If you are a bear — then this zone $7.00 – $7.10 looks good for positions. If you are a bull wait for a confirming break out above $7.10.. If you are like me (uncommitted), wait for the break out or break down to re-institute positions.

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Still a Bearish Trade in a Bull Trend

October 6, 2022October 5, 2022

Nice rally continues after testing the major support. It is still a bearish trade (when prices broke below $7.40) in a long term bullish trend. That correlates to paring positions on the rallies if you are long the rally or adding to short positions on rallies play the game with the expectations of the ranges being tested.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

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Similar to July — Price Bounce

October 5, 2022October 4, 2022

As discussed yesterday– when prices closed below the 200 day SMA and the 40 Week SMA for two days, prices immediately repudiated with in a day. Yesterday may be a similar response but the market will need to confirm the rebound over the next few days. Until confirmation of the rebound, would be hesitant to add dramatically to length.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

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Declines Extended

October 4, 2022October 3, 2022

The editor is not allowing me up-load the Daily image for your review — but let me explain that prices closed the day below the key 200 day SMA for the first time since last July. Last July the market rallied off of that test — not sure what happen this time, in July it was repudiated in three days.

Major Support: $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

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Price Consolidation — Setting Up Q4 Run?

October 3, 2022October 2, 2022

Prices settled down last week with lowest Average True Range since earlier in the summer. A bearish storage release didn’t bring the bears out and demand destruction from Ian didn’t extend the losses– not being a fundamental based trader– I have not way to explain. Technical data points look to the market testing support on the expiration of Oct below $6.50 only to see prices rebound– that spells a test of support and support held. Are prices destined to test resistance now? There may yet be another test of support with Nov as prompt — have to wait and see.

Major Support: $6.737-$6.727, $6.519, $6.504, $6.38, $6.02, $5.623,
Minor Support $6.42, $5.548, $5.40-$5.45
Major Resistance:$7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021, $9.05-$9.12,$9.35, $9.40, 9.664–$9.67, $9.9

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Nov Shows Mild Strength in Early Trade as Prompt

October 3, 2022October 2, 2022

The expiring October rallied from $6.456 to $6.901 before going off the board at $6.868. This was the third highest expiration this year but $2.485 lower than September. The average settlement for ’22 is currently $6.783.

For more than a year and a half expiring contracts have rallied before going to settlement, discussed here nearly every month, October did so, but the substantial decline to an expiration day low (also the low for October’s tenure as prompt), before that rally suggests a departure from the long – standing pattern but not necessarily the trend.

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November Takes Control with Declines then Rally

September 30, 2022September 29, 2022

Going into its prompt role- Nov had very early (overnight) strength only to loose it all and then some after the rest of the trade folks came in. Was a little startled the the fundamental folks were expecting a big injection (likely why the market was weak going into the release) they got what they were looking for – but could not extend the declines after the release. What is that all about– market running out of sellers??? Full disclosure, the declines were starting to challenge the 200 day SMA and the 40 week SMA at the lows — so perhaps prudence took over.

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One of the Calmest Expiration’s in 2 Years

September 29, 2022September 28, 2022

That was interesting — prices showed strength on Monday going into the expiration — only to give it up on Tuesday and showed slight strength yesterday. Can’t call it a well-bid expiration, as prices closed last Friday at $6.828 and expired at $6.868. That is all irrelevant now as Nov takes over as prompt and is facing a large speculative short position, demand destruction from Ian, and potential sabotage on the pipelines from Russia to Germany. Be interesting to watch how this all works out. Forgot to mention another storage report which is going to be bearish (according to my fundamental clients).

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Calm Expiration???

September 28, 2022September 27, 2022

This could b a unique expiration as compared to the last twenty+ monthly expiration. So far the current price is just about where it was when price started the week.– What no rally– not sure yet but a great trade position month after month may be coming to break. Does not mean that the trade behavior is not going to happen next month — just means that it may be subtle this month. We will see.

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