Not a significant change in perspective from last week when I wrote the following… When trade remains within the range traded during a previous period (whether days, weeks, or months) important support and resistance has been defined (as it has over the last few weeks, the longer the period the more important those levels are. As mentioned previously, violation of either of the new extremes is usually a trigger for influential traders (speculative hedge funds) who have been and remain significantly net short the gas market. Trade through the April high (this week’s first close over the continuation 10 – week SMA as well as the 50 – day) since the week ending 12/16/22, suggests is the far more likely of the near term directional outcomes.
Last week the trade expanded the June lows into the continuation lows of previous periods before finding support. Don’t have a lot to add from a technical side other than it remains in the range environment and should be traded accordingly.