Author: Willis Bennett

As Expected — Retrace to New Support

Daily Continuous

Mentioned in the Daily yesterday — I wanted to see a test of the old resistance zone — prices to bounce and rebound. Just about what happened. Want to take this opportunity to wish all of you a Happy Thanksgiving and please enjoy or family and friends. First storage with drawl of the winter season in the storage report so lets rock and roll.

Major Support:$6.45, $5.72, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $6.74,$7.00, $7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Key Resistance Falls — Does it Hold as Support

Daily Continuous

Saw this movie last month as prices tested $7.00 — closed the day above the key resistance level ($6.40-$6.46) only to give it all up and more on the next day. That was a Monday -Tuesday combo day as well. The question this observer has is the resistance zone coming up (sighted above) hold as support or do prices fall back into the previous range. Today and the rest of the week will give us clues — we may be headed to a new range for traders $6.45-$7,25.

Major Support:$6.45, $5.72, $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $6.74,$7.00, $7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

What Will Break the Range?

Daily Continuous

The range that we have discussed for the last two weeks remains and discussions about the options and potential outcomes is discussed in the Weekly. On the Daily, not much has changed since last week as the market seems to be waiting on the next piece of news that will impact price (guess the warming forecasts aren’t enough).

Major Support: $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $6.41-$6.456, $6.74,$7.00, $7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

Consolidating For a Run or Break Lower

Weekly Continuation

After a “somewhat” calm wee of trade the question that was mentioned in the Daily –Is gas constructing a base to resume the secular uptrend higher or is it consolidating after a substantial decline during the nine weeks between the August high and the October low, thereby allowing the extremely oversold conditions to moderate, before another “leg” lower. Both directional bias’ seem to have significant contingencies which means that violent whip saw action may occur.

For the market to advance after building this base, a violation of the intermediate downtrend line will suggest that the decline from the August high ($10.028 – $4.750, 52.6%) has likely concluded, but not necessarily that a serious rally will follow. Higher levels of resistance, not limited to the the November reversal high and the still rising 40 – week SMA, are formidable areas. Three of four higher weekly closes suggest that December is gaining the sponsorship for a successful test of the declining resistance. Violation of the trend line and a weekly close above $6.459 will suggest that prompt gas has traded the first higher close of a new intermediate term uptrend (as discussed in the Daily).

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Bias Changing?

Daily Continuous

Since Labor Day (just before) price action went from positive to negative and this website has explained the declines and potential outcomes of the technical destruction that had occurred. Now, we are faced with a “tipping point”– the market has used the area around $6.41 as resistance (mentioned here) and there has been only one daily “close” above that area on Monday a couple of weeks ago. That rally turned out false and prices quickly confirmed the silliness. That area is the old gap from the massive sell-off in October and has limited gains since. Yesterday was a great opportunity to settle a day above that area (confirming support) but instead basically closed right on it. For any additional gains in price-the market has to show the sponsorship to close distinctly above that resistance and follow through after the settle. Until that happens– the market remains at the high end of the trading range.

Major Support: $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $6.41-$6.456, $6.74,$7.00, $7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Rally In the Last 30 Minutes

Daily Continuous

Not sure what happened or hit the news wire but prices caught a major bid, rallying $.25 in 30 minutes at the end of the day yesterday. Range trading around $5.80-$5.90 until a whole bunch of folks decided it was wise to be buying. Still trading in the range discussed — I was surprised to see a rally going into a storage report which is likely to show another injection– perhaps the last of the month due on weather this week. Whatever happens — it is again another mystery.

Major Support: $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $6.456, $6.74,$7.00, $7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Consolidation Around $6.00 Continues

Daily Continuation

Price action remains trading around the $6.00 area and some would call it a consolidation phase. Yesterday, continued this trading between $5.85 and $6.20 which is a smaller range that recent volatility. Is the consolidation setting up additional declines– down to the lows from previous declines — or is it developing a base from which a Q4 rally can commence and sustain. Have limited knowledge of any fundamental reasons for either of the potential outcomes so there will be no explanation.

Major Support: $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $6.456, $6.74,$7.00, $7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Both Bias’s in One Day

Daily Continuous

Wrote about which fundamental factor would influence trade yesterday, little did I know both bias’s would have an impact with the morning trade following the near term cold and then as the morning moved along the bears took over and prices declined back below $6.00 before the close. What’s next is not my in my knowledge capacity –prices have not hit the extremes (though the high side was within $.06) of the range but I remain patient.

Major Support: $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $6.456, $6.74,$7.00, $7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Reversal Week

Weekly Continuous

I have no clue what stimulated the market to the opening gap of that size (last Monday) but it took the prompt through the still rising 200 – day SMA. The run did not last long as December quickly fell to close the gap and continued lower. After back – to – back weekly gains, the first since the final run to the August highs, on Friday a failed recovery attempt, terminated ending up as a downside reversal from just above the previous week’s high to close the reversal lower. The week ending daily reversal left December back below $6 (where most of the trade during it’s tenure as prompt has been spent). Critical support for December is between there and its October and to date November lows ($5.345 –$5.614). Events like this week’s reversal following an opening gap and then the moving average cross along with other factors suggest that rallies in December gas will be enthusiastically sold.

The last time the continuation 10 – week (SMA) crossed through the 40 – week was during January AFTER the construction of the December ’21 low and remember moving averages are always “lagging” indicators. The 10 – week remained there for several weeks until prompt gas kicked off on the late winter/early spring rally.

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.

Long Range Forecasts vs Near Term

Daily Continuous

I rarely dive into the “fundamentals” associated with natural gas– but due to the quiet range trade (prices declining back into the range either side of $6.00- discussed here for over a week) wanted to take a shot at the quandary that fundamental traders face. Near term the forecasts are for cold temps and higher demand near term (10 days) but then the models have some warming after that period. So how the folks trade this contradiction – not sure– but the range seems a safer way to trade.

Major Support: $5.61-$5.44, $4.716, $4.705-$4.68
Minor Support: $5.47
Major Resistance: $6.456, $6.74,$7.00, $7.18, $7.532, $7.71-7.75, 8.021,

To read The Daily Call you must be a subscriber (Current members sign in here. ) Start your subscription today.