My good friend and phenomenal technical / history analyst provided me with the following (take from it what you will):
THE “JANUARY PHENOMENON”.
Almost since the beginning of recorded time (which in natural gas trading for convenience begins in December ’91 – January ’92 although trading at the NYMEX first began in April of ’90), late December/early January highs or lows have consistently been disproportionally important going forward into each new year.
To summarize…of those 31 years (since ’92):
Twenty – two have begun with a gap (although a couple of those times the gap occurred during the last or next to last trading day of the previous year).
In seven of the thirty – one years (five of which began with a gap) the high of the year traded during January, most often during the first week.
In seven of the thirty – one years (five of which began with a gap) the low of the year traded during January, most often during the first week.
In the other seventeen years, twelve of which began with a gap, either the high or low for January would not be violated for a period of months. If the gas market was rising the January low presented substantial support well into the New Year. If the gas market was falling the January high was substantial resistance. While nothing is always in the gas market, whichever is first violated (the January high or low) sets the direction of gas prices for an extended period.
Over the last five years the January low has been the low of the year twice…in ’21 and ’22. The January high was the high of 2019. In ’20 the January high was not exceeded until August, in ’18 not until November.
Expect a significant high or low to occur between January expiration and mid – January
