Author: Willis Bennett

Break Out Confirmation

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My apologies for missing publishing yesterday — did not set up the server properly– but you missed nothing as my diatribe just spoke about the failure of the move on Wednesday by closing under the key resistance area (after stopping me out on the run). Said the same thing going into the storage report that the selling around $3.00 had a close and low risk opportunity and yesterday proved that it was low risk. The one element that the market provided was the potential confirmation of a bias change with a high volume (daily) directional bias change. It is now imperative for the market to finally confirm this be holding most of the gains through the weekly close.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.24, $3.536, 3.59

A Rebound — Looking to Test Key Resistance

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Not since February has the market broke the resistance provided by the highs at $3.027. Once, in early August, prices tested the area but failed. Now, on the expectations of winter coming, it seems prices are wanting to test this zone again. Time will tell but the good element of this trade is low risk — selling the zone with tight stops just beyond.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $2.99-$3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Prices Decline Well Short of Gap

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Weakness prevailed but the declines fell short of serious tests of the support provided by the expiration gap. This week should continue to provide clues as to the gap and the term of its existence.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $2.99-$3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Does the Gap Close?

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Go into the expiration of the Oct contract and expectations on the upcoming month in the Weekly section. From a daily standpoint — would expect the expiration gap to be challenged during the coming week. This will likely set up the lower end for the Nov range of prices.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $2.99-$3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Headed To Bias Determination

Weekly Continuous

One of the most significant changes that the market provided was that October was bid into expiration and it has been months since we have seen that. After closing lower on Monday the expiring prompt reversed higher, on with pretty decent volume, and went off the board at $2.764, which was $.19/dt higher than September and the highest monthly settlement since February at $3.109. Settlement was notably still below the resistance defined by the June/July highs (the pre settlement high was $2.781), but premiums afforded November quickly changed that.

I spoke, recently, about the premium awarded November had fallen from a historically generous $.502 on 08/15 to $.242. When October went off the board that premium had been further reduced to $.135 ($2.764 v $2.899) which is more in line with the traditional norm but still more than enough to leave the expected “expiration gap” ($2.781 – $2.868) . Continuation resistance ( March and August highs $3.018 – $3.027) proved too much to overcome and now the September high ($2.997) has been added to the formidable resistance zone. The gains left the calendar September close $.165/dt better than the August close and the highest calendar month close since December and Q4 ’22 ended at $4.430.

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Premium Suppressed

Daily Continuous

I guess I should lighten the suppression comment to “narrowed slightly”. Not much else to say versus the Weekly expectations published last weekend.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Nothing Changes

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Nothing has changed from my Daily and Weekly comments yesterday.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Large Premium In Nov Over Oct

Weekly Continuous

Prompt Oct remained in the same range October gas opened a little lower ($2.624 v $2.644) and closed a little lower ($2.637, minus $.007). In between there were a couple of tests of support (Monday’s low was $2.600, the value of the trend line rising from the April/May/June lows was $2.598 and another failed test of resistance. October traded an “outside” day reversal after the first test of the rising trend line with increased volume then followed through to the upside, trading a new high for its tenure as prompt ($2.872 v $2.865 on 08/31). The now soon to expire prompt managed to post a new high daily close then that was all she wrote as October gave up the two day gain falling to a new low for the week $2.595 before Friday’s recovery to close at $2.637, a little more than a penny below the continuation 50 – day SMA.

November gave up more (-$.053) as did December (- $.048) and the winter ’23 – ’24 strip (- $.041…a new low close). November has defined its own trading range since late March…+/-$2.825 – $3.300 but this week’s lowest close in 2+ years suggests that the lower boundary of that range nearly corresponds to the upper boundary of the continuation range, is likely to be in for a severe test. Have discussed the possibility/likelihood of November being taken into the extended continuation range and continues to warrant a serious mention. A close below $2.825 increases that likelihood to a probability. November is still awarded $.242/dt premium over October but since its peak on 08/15 that premium has been reduced by half ($.239 v $.502).

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October Lives For Three Days

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Not much to say about the last three days of the Oct prompt contract life outside of the range that contracts have maintained all summer. Weakness has been the trend of the expiration’s this year so would think there should be some this month as well. Nov has a serious premium discussed in the Weekly section and it is likely that Nov will be brought into the recent range.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Guesses

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Any guesses as to what I will be doing as the market challenges to low side of the summer trading range?

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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