Author: Willis Bennett

Jan Spot Extremely Over Sold

Daily Continuous with RSI

Had some questions yesterday when the market gaped lower on the open when it was over sold. Please remember that technical indications are usually based upon mathematics and one of the common indicators we use is the Relative Strength Indicator (RSI). As you will notice in the chart above — the RSI is approaching the lower level of 20 which indicates over sold. This does not mean it can’t go lower but notice on chart — it doesn’t stay there for long. Look at the chart below which is the Spot January chart which is well below 20 and is considered extremely over sold.

Daily Spot January Contract

Even though the technical indicator is under 20 — does not mean that it can’t go lower but how long it stays there is another question. When markets are extended to extreme levels — they are subject reversals that punish the late momentum players.

Am feeling a little better today and will work on the Weekly tomorrow.

Major Support:$2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.68, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Continued Bearish Bias

Weekly Continuation

Going to keep it brief this evening and will expand during the week as my granddaughter decided to give me her respiratory bug. Actually, not much to say except the element of trade that has kept the market from becoming grossly over sold is the premium that the new prompt brings after expiration of the previous contract. Will go into the specifics during the week but the market is oversold and is setting up for a reversal (doubt it will be today).

Major Support: $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.68, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Down and Down Further

Daily Continuous

Under the weather (so to speak) from my granddaughter’s virus — will be back on board (I hope) tomorrow — all I can say tonight is that prices are lower Sunday night and want to go lower.

Major Support: $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.68, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Close But No Cigar Yet

Daily Continuous

Was expecting prices to go down to the expiration level of the Dec contract — while close not quite ($2.68-$2.706). Starting to wonder with all the bearish fundamental (forecast data) built into the Jan contract — What is going to send it lower– don’t think technical data points will as they are starting to become over sold– would be hesitant to initiated significant bearish positions here.

Major Support: $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.68, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Bearish Extends Closing Jan Premium Expected

Daily Continuous

Bearish trade continues and would expect further declines on the storage report unless all the folks have already sold in anticipation. We shall see but it is not looking good for bullish positions.

Major Support: $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Expiration Gap Closed

Daily Continuous

It took some time but the expiration gap from last September finally got filled. So trade action closed both gaps it inherited — both resistance and support. Now what– my attitude will remain consistent with prior months in letting the market define its bias near term– but there is a clear bearish tilt going on now.

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Bearish

Daily Continuous

Breaking trend line support and most moving average support lines, the declines have been impressive– so breathtaking that profit taking has commenced. We all know it isn’t going to zero (well at least not tomorrow) so warm weather forecasts will only last for a period of time and then the flip which will be ugly. In the meantime play the short side for daily trades.

Major Support: , $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.00, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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Pushing Toward Major Support

Weekly Continuous

There are four trading days left in calendar November and the prompt has lost $.753/dt ( 21% from the 11/01 high to Friday’s close), while prompt – in – waiting January has lost $.842 as the premiums awarded deferred months continue to be compressed. This week’s low for January gas, $2.933 also happened to be the same as the contract’s low for the first week of June 2021.

With the weekly close only $.115 higher than the low close of 2023 and $.259 higher than the low close of 2021 (all weekly closes of ’22 were higher), the market may be providing opportunity to add to length. Note that December ’24 is currently priced at $4.039 making the “new” continuation strip certainly higher when December goes to settlement and is replaced. My thoughts are not to pay the premium that results from that replacement but rather to bide your time and wait for the premium in the differed contracts to dissipate while keeping a close eye on the support between those old continuation lows and the average settlement value of the last twelve months or so.

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Press Lower

Daily Continuous

As suggested in the Weekly yesterday, prices pressed lower and are now starting to attract the major support areas from the summer (what was resistance is now support). This will be interesting as volume during the holiday week is historically weak and may make the extending the declines easier.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

Last Week Provides Negative Near Term Bias

Daily Continuous

Provided some insight as to the negative bias from last week in the Weekly section– but the bias is clearly negative and further declines should be expected. However, that being said there is some areas of significant support coming up so the trade will provide some interesting input.

Major Support: $2.98-$3.03, $2.82-$2.78, $2.74, $2.608, $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $3.16, $2.84, $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance $3.48, $3.536, 3.59, $3.65

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