Author: Willis Bennett

Strong Daily Close to May

Daily Continuous

Been a few days but nothing has changed. Prices rallied late last week but ran into the trading wall (either side of $2.00) regardless of the expiration gains given to May. Another month and would not expect a big shift in the recent ranges.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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No New Bias Definition

Weekly Continuation

April expiration was similar to March, but April’s spike lower was a little different. The trade to $1.481 was the low of April’s closing range whereas expiring March reversed higher, trading as high as $1.720 before fading to settle at $1.615, April appeared amply offered through the process. Settlement at $1.575 was $ .04/dt below March (significantly different from March settling $.875 below February) and was the lowest contract month settlement since July ’20 went off the board at $1.495.

April’s last minute spike lower had the earmarks of a classic capitulation low except that a volume spike was missing. With that critical difference noted, trade for the holiday shortened week had a striking similarity to the week March went off the board. With the premium awarded new prompt April the weekly continuation chart showed an “outside” week reversal higher (noted at the time also without the requisite volume ). Even so, April rallied to trade the calendar March high at $2.009 before retreating to close the “expiration” gap left between $1.720 and $1.782 on 03/12.

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Options Today Contract Tomorrow

Daily Continuous

I have jumped ahead to the May contract for analytical purposes as the expiring April (Wednesday) provides no analytical support. Stick with the themes from the Long term Week section and unless something dramatic happens this will likely be the last daily until next week (Good Friday celebration on Friday). Should something, happens will post on Thursday.

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Average Trade Range Narrows — Expiration Coming

Weekly Continuous

A second straight weak weekly close strengthens the technical presumption that prompt gas will be offered lower before April goes off the board. Readers may recall that expiring March traded the low of its life before reversing higher the day it went to settlement, February didn’t but did settle at a five day low.

It has been a long time since prompt gas traded a total range of $.122 during the week and even longer time since the average range for the last fifteen days was $.101. In late July last summer, the low ebb of the ATR did not quite reach the zone. The low calculation was $.117. The daily continuation chart shows that there was something of an immediate oversold rally but on balance prompt gas worked sideways to higher for a couple of months before kicking off on the Q4 ’23 rally. The low calculation on June 24, 2020 was $.0739, on April 28, 2021 $.0731. The periods that followed those calculations were strikingly similar, as price moved sideways to higher. The low volatility sideways to higher trade gave the lagging weekly calculation the time to catch up. In ’20 the weekly ATR fell to $.237 before a serious rally began. In ’21 to $.187 before a similar result. Currently the weekly calculation is $.396. Due to the ATR covering 15 weeks, another month will have to pass before the high range weeks that traded during January fall out of the calculation, but it will not take many weeks with a range of only $.122 for the weekly ATR to approach its historically bullish zone.

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Consequences For the Declining Range Trade

Daily Continuous

I have been poking fun and frustration of the recent range trading that the market has been providing us for the last month or so, but the market is going to respond to such lethargy. Go into some of the recent history of what happens in the Long term Weekly section. We have expiration this week and would expect similar type of action as the March expiration process (as we haven’t moved this month with April as prompt).

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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More Of the Same

Daily Continuous

It is all in the heading with other comments necessary.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Another Storage Release

Daily Continuous

Another week, another storage release and the prices are very similar to the last releases. OO my what do you think is going to happen– I will bet on a continuation of the recent range.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Short Term Base May Be Forming

Daily Continuous

Not submitting a Daily yesterday may become an occasional event as I can only write about or discuss the same type of price action so many days in a row. Let me repeat the same diatribe as the last week or so as the market continues to grind out trade in the recent range. Would not expect anything different this time.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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March Has Action but Going Nowhere Slowly

Weekly Continuous

This is sure exciting-Price action found a decline at the start of the week to the area of support between $1.60 and $1.70. From there a bounce occurred and traded traded as high as $1.774. As that small bounce was occurring, volume was lower. By Friday. the prompt returned to retest support at between $1.643 and $1.651. All that action and nothing happened.

Volume and open interest increased as the prompt fell at the front of the week but the trend changed with the turnover diminishing on Friday. Perhaps this suggests that sellers below $1.650 might be more cautious. Notwithstanding that potential, given the weak ending close a contract low close for the April contract , the technical presumption is April will likely head lower.

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You Have to Love Range Trading or Premium Selling

Daily Continuous

If you are selling premium (options) or accurately range trading this market you are having a good Q1. This is looking like a market that is in a hurry to go nowhere. Will bring more thoughts when the Daily limits the distribution later in the week.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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