Author: Willis Bennett

Trend Lines Hold

Daily Continuous

Per the Weekly Section, both of the trend lines (support and resistance) were tested yesterday and both held their importance for near term trade. Today is yet another day.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.17
Major Resistance$2.413, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Higher Weekly Close

Daily Continuous

As the headline announced — the action last week left the market at a higher close with the convergence of two trend lines intersecting this week (see Weekly detail). This will likely bring some additional volatility (especially depending on which trend line breaks). Expectations of the outcome are discussed in the Weekly detail.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.17
Major Resistance$2.413, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Issues Await

Weekly Continuation

July continued to closely follow the technical/seasonal script previously discussed. After testing the trend line rising from the April/May lows last Thursday and Friday the prompt rose to challenge the short – term trend line declining from the May highs. The falling resistance trend line was too much of a sell signal and ended the rally. July gave up the gain, traded .004 through last week’s close but stopped short of testing the trend line rising from the April/May lows before recovering to close above the trend line resistance. mentioned last week, a close above the short – term trend line would trigger a test of the intermediate – long term trend line falling from the August/November/December highs. The value of that declining resistance for the past week was $2.383 and the high was$2.380. Also suggested was that the prompt’s first challenge of the resistance would fail which it did. July retraced much of the week’s gain but trading a total range of $.207/dt, and remained well “inside” last week’s range.

It will get very interesting this week when prompt July encountered the trend line declining from the Q3 and Q4 ’22 highs and the trend line from the April May lows (chart above). During the coming week the trend line declining from the August/November/December highs will intersect the trend line rising from the April/May lows. This crowding or convergence of the trend lines is not some kind of magic bullet, but both have substantial technical significant importance.

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No Bias Change Indication

Daily Continuous

The storage report provided no bias indication for prices just keeping the price in the recent range. Look for last week’s high at $2.41 to hold the gains and lows for this week have likely been printed.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $2.17
Major Resistance$2.413, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Prices Push Higher

Daily Continuation

I hear from my fundamental folks that the whole reason for the recent gains is due to heat coming at the end of June into July. I apologize for my ignorance– but is the summer not hotter than the spring? What ever– starting to test the near term resistance. Lets see if the fundamental concerns are enough to break above.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $
Major Resistance$2.413, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Consolidation In a Narrow Range

Daily Continuation

Expanding the lower end of the range slightly, prices stayed in a fairly narrow range during the day. The actions seems to imply that that folks are waiting for some fundamental news event to coordinate the next move bias.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $
Major Resistance$2.413, $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Per Weekly– Prices Run to Test Resistance

Daily Continuous

Mentioned in the Weekly section yesterday to expect a test of initial resistance at the $2.27 area and that happened quickly as the run climbed over $2.30. From there, prices came back to close the day just under the initial area. Would expect additional test as prices are heading into the historically bullish period for prices in July.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

Declines Ran Out of Steam (For Now?)

Weekly Continuation

The expected, July contract gave up the record premium that had been awarded over expired June. The new prompt traded just through June’s expiration low ($2.138 v $2.143) nearly on the the value of a trend line rising from the April/May lows, before recovering a few cents. In four of the last five weeks prompt gas has settled between $2.113 and $2.181 as daily and weekly trend lines steadily made their way to convergence with current price above the February/March/April/May lows ($1.967 – $1.944 – $1.946 –$ 2.031) while volatility continues to decline.

Violation of the trend line rising from the April/May lows (currently $2.144 and rising $.005/day) will suggest another test of the support presented by calendar month lows bracketing $2.00.Violation of the trend line declining from the May high (currently $2.290 and falling about $.04/day) will suggest a forthcoming test of the downtrend defining trend line drawn from the August/November/December highs (currently $2.383 and falling $.186/week). Expect July to successful test both ascending and declining short – term support and resistance.

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New Month — Same Range

Daily Continuous

Well it might of been exciting for some to see the premium that July had over the expired June — as you know it was expected and the dog did not quite catch the car (see Daily on Friday). So here we sit in another range bound market — perhaps for the month of calendar June.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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Early May Lows Look Targeted

Daily Continuous

Spoke about the chase for the early May lows yesterday and it continued. Expect this dog to “catch the car”– my question is what does it do after— I have heard that exhaust pipes from cars can be quite hot.

Major Support: $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support: $
Major Resistance $2.543-$2.604, $2.836, $3.00, $3.536, 3.595

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