Author: Willis Bennett

What To Make

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What are we to make of that move on little fundamental support out side of the energy complex of commodities. Doubt this will hold over night as the light trade of the after market will find sellers seeking the $2.80’s. It does nothing to the directional bias (range trade between $3.00-$2.50) that has held for the summer.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Quiet Trade For Birthday

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Enjoyed the Birthday celebration and was not startled to see that the market did not do anything in my absence. Still in the summer range with no serious directional bias. I have no idea how many times I have said those words over the last 3 months — but consolidation processes behave like this. Hold on– it will break one way or another.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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No Serious Action on the Storage

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Nothing to add from the storage data except confirmation that the market is real comfortable trading between $2.80 and $2.50. Time will tell– but in the mean time I will be late on the Weekly report (Tuesday) and there will be no Daily for next Monday as I am celebrating the anniversary of my birth. Yee Haw.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Ceiling Remains

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Price run fell short of serious resistance — so lets call it a failed attempt — again. Storage is upon us lets see what happens– still in the summer range.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Gap Closed

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As expected, the gap left from last Tuesday was closed yesterday and now the market is starting to bounce up to the resistance area that has repelled rallies during the summer. This will be key for the remainder of the October prompt– if the resistance breaks then tests of $3.00 are imminent — if it remains firm then a great selling zone.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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No Lipstick

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There is not enough lip stick around to paint this pig market. Go into the effects of last week’s trade on the upcoming month in the Weekly section. Not looking like break outs or break downs. Have fun — if something remotely interesting happens I will publish a Daily – going to be traveling and have little to no interest is trying to put any color on this pig.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Gap Open For Prices

Weekly Continuation

When the week started — prices gapped lower and never came close to closing the gap during the holiday week. Discussed the historical tendencies of price action around the holiday with the declines consistent. In some years the decline is severe, some modest, the average of the last ten is about 10%. After closing at $2.765, gap-piing lower on Monday/Tuesday when trading resumed. On Thursday, after trading to the week’s low of $2.500 the prompt reversed higher from support and registered a decline of 12.7% from the 08/31 high. Given that October continued to follow the recent trend on the technical script the guidance is that the trading range will likely continue through at least the remainder of October’s tenure.

The gap left on 09/05 remains open between $2.708 and $2.735, together with a trend line drawn from the August and pre – Labor Day highs will present formidable resistance just below the aforementioned June and July highs. Expect October to close that gap and test the trend line tested over the next couple of weeks. At least as often as not the post Labor Day low turns out to be the low for calendar September and October settles premium to its immediate predecessor (about 75% of the time).

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Immediate Mission Accomplished

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Wanted see a test of the September expiration and got a solid run at it yesterday. Now what — explained in the Weekly section of the website what will happen either way.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Saw That Coming

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Not like we didn’t see that decline coming — but now it gets interesting as the market still need to decline into the September expiration and then break through the support zones down to $2.47. As discussed in the Weekly, this decline may last more than just a day — so patience is a virtue in this area — let the trade indicate the move.

Major Support: $2.47, $2.00, $1.991-$1.96, $1.795-$1.766
Minor Support $2.38-$2.26, $2.17
Major Resistance$2.83, $3.00, $3.536, 3.59

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Stalls At High End of Range

Weekly Continuous

Prices reversed from a new low for September’s tenure and the soon to expire prompt had a gap higher, finding similar selling at similar levels tested earlier in the month. Before September expiration (about exactly midway between the July and August settlement values) the expiring prompt closed the gap and ended with a last two day gain. New prompt October (carrying a $.121/dt premium when September settled at $2.556) the new contract month immediately built on that premium closing on the first day of its tenure at $2.806…right in the middle of the zone of resistance between the June and July highs. October tried twice more to close above that zone (trading to highs of $2.865 and $2.860) but both times ended those trading sessions lower.

The new prompt gas is following the historical technical script fairly well. As discussed prices around Labor Day have a period of weakness on either side of the holiday. The prompt gas tends to rally to a Labor Day high before weakening immediately before or immediately following the holiday period. Most often that weakness leads to a mid – September low. The average of the declines over the last ten years is about 10%.

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