Author: Willis Bennett

Rhyming With History — Weakness in March

Daily Continuous

Continued the declines on Friday- closing the week on the lows. Not a lot of positive momentum when prices close on the lows of the week (and the week before). This was to expected if you follow the history of natural gas which was discussed here for the last week of so. Question remains though of how far down will the market pursue before finding a base to consolidate around. Go into some of the implication in the Weekly.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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Near term Support Fails

Weekly Continuation

The historical consistency of declines following rallies to calendar February highs were discussed over the last week particularly 2014 and 2021 (other years described briefly were ’03, ’05 and ’08) that I did not go into. While there were notable similarities between all but ’08, there were also some substantial differences in the degree of weakness that followed. The two most recent examples are illustrative.

In 2014, March gas traded and reversed from its high on 02/24 (similar to March ’25), but the percentage decline to settlement was a little more than twice that of the recent decline. From the February high at $6.493 prompt gas fell to its “Q1” low on 04/02 at $4.221. An erratic Q2 rally peaked on 06/16 at $4.886, significantly below the average of Q2 rallies. Interrupted by several rallies which all peaked at lower highs prompt gas did not print the 2014 low until the last trading day of the year at $2.882.

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Brief Pause

Daily Continuation

Mentioned yesterday that the potential for a consolidation around $4.00 and that seemed to have happened. Time will tell how the folks figure out the variance between fundamental data or the technical implications. We need to sit on the side and let the participants figure the upcoming bias.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $4.00, $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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Expiration Just Below $4.00

Daily Continuous

The now prompt April contract will likely be me with some softness, continuing the recent trade. The potential exception would be the storage report, should there be a surprise. Short of a surprise, I am expecting a consolidation — low volatility market for the next few days.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $4.00, $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

A Brief(?) Rebound

Daily Continuous

The market rebounded off of the declines from Monday — some of the gains may have been associated with the options expiring — and we will see today. A rhyme with 2014 — will lead to further weakness — testing support. In 2008, (did not discuss in the Weekly) prices held into early July. In 2008, it is the only year (last 25 years) that prices held the February highs over Jan highs. Market seems to defining it’s near term bias.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $4.16-$4.00, $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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Expectations of the “Rhyme”

Daily Continuous

Discussed from a historical perspective the few times the Feb trade took out the highs from Jan and made reference to the current month price action looking similar to 2014 and yesterday confirmed the initial interpretation as accurate. The game is not over yet and the rhyming that was discussed, has yet to finish. Yesterday was just the first phase of the correction if it is to be accurately compared to the collapse in 2014. Look at the Weekly chart from the Weekly section and noticed where prices returned to at the completion of the collapse– 2025 has a ways to go yet.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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Market Action “Rhymes”

Weekly Continuous

On Tuesday the market further expanded recent range reversal, after a gap lower opening when trading resumed for the holiday shortened week, and Wednesday’s upside follow through took March to test the zone of resistance between the December and January highs ($4.201 – $4.367). My idea was that a test of that resistance would be an “unlikely event”– I was wrong.

On Wednesday prompt gas posted a new high daily close, $4.280 v $4.258 on 01/16…the highest daily close since 12/30/22 (just before then prompt February ’23 gapped lower to begin the New Year). March extended the rally as high as an after market, Globex trade to $4.476 closing a long – standing gap on the monthly charts left at the beginning of ’23, before a reversal lower. The week’s ending close after another daily gain, $4.243…notably within the resistance previously described, was the highest in twenty – six months.

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First Indications Rhyming with 2014

Daily Continuous

Not expecting the Jan high to be surpassed by the Feb high was using history to our benefit. Go into the recent history in the Weekly section — last week’s events have only happened a handful of times and the results are similar (especially in the last 12 years). Sure to the concepts of the Weekly writing — prices opened significantly lower on Sunday night. Won’t be claiming technical victory (got burned in the phases of the 2014 collapse) but will be watching the price movements closely this week.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $4.16-$4.00, $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

Buying Dries Up

Daily Continuous

The run ran out of steam and retraced after the storage release which I thought was bullish miss. That is why I don’t follow trade on fundamental data. The declines did not break below $4 and now that seems to be support. There are four more trade days in the March contract, and the decline I was expecting (to major support at $3.16) seems unlikely. Should the market remains supported over the next days there may be a new “range” or para-dime in natural gas during 2025. This recent strength should be respected and I will follow up with additional analysis over the weekend.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.201, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

Challenge at Resistance Succeeds For Now

Daily Continuous

Discussed it in the Daily published after the failure of the server to send out the Daily yesterday– the market closed at the previous Jan High and that suggests higher highs is a bullish trend– will the bullish trend continue — we will get a further indication with the storage release today.

Major Support:,$2.727-$2.784, $2.648, $2.39, $2.35, $2.112,
Minor Support : $3.34, $3.167, $3.00-$2.95, $2.914, $1.856,$1.89-$1.856
Major Resistance: $3.829, $3.92, $4.00, $4.201, $4.369, $4.378-$4.394, $4.461,

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