Author: Willis Bennett

Average Trade Range Narrows — Expiration Coming

Weekly Continuous

A second straight weak weekly close strengthens the technical presumption that prompt gas will be offered lower before April goes off the board. Readers may recall that expiring March traded the low of its life before reversing higher the day it went to settlement, February didn’t but did settle at a five day low.

It has been a long time since prompt gas traded a total range of $.122 during the week and even longer time since the average range for the last fifteen days was $.101. In late July last summer, the low ebb of the ATR did not quite reach the zone. The low calculation was $.117. The daily continuation chart shows that there was something of an immediate oversold rally but on balance prompt gas worked sideways to higher for a couple of months before kicking off on the Q4 ’23 rally. The low calculation on June 24, 2020 was $.0739, on April 28, 2021 $.0731. The periods that followed those calculations were strikingly similar, as price moved sideways to higher. The low volatility sideways to higher trade gave the lagging weekly calculation the time to catch up. In ’20 the weekly ATR fell to $.237 before a serious rally began. In ’21 to $.187 before a similar result. Currently the weekly calculation is $.396. Due to the ATR covering 15 weeks, another month will have to pass before the high range weeks that traded during January fall out of the calculation, but it will not take many weeks with a range of only $.122 for the weekly ATR to approach its historically bullish zone.

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Consequences For the Declining Range Trade

Daily Continuous

I have been poking fun and frustration of the recent range trading that the market has been providing us for the last month or so, but the market is going to respond to such lethargy. Go into some of the recent history of what happens in the Long term Weekly section. We have expiration this week and would expect similar type of action as the March expiration process (as we haven’t moved this month with April as prompt).

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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More Of the Same

Daily Continuous

It is all in the heading with other comments necessary.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Another Storage Release

Daily Continuous

Another week, another storage release and the prices are very similar to the last releases. OO my what do you think is going to happen– I will bet on a continuation of the recent range.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Short Term Base May Be Forming

Daily Continuous

Not submitting a Daily yesterday may become an occasional event as I can only write about or discuss the same type of price action so many days in a row. Let me repeat the same diatribe as the last week or so as the market continues to grind out trade in the recent range. Would not expect anything different this time.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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March Has Action but Going Nowhere Slowly

Weekly Continuous

This is sure exciting-Price action found a decline at the start of the week to the area of support between $1.60 and $1.70. From there a bounce occurred and traded traded as high as $1.774. As that small bounce was occurring, volume was lower. By Friday. the prompt returned to retest support at between $1.643 and $1.651. All that action and nothing happened.

Volume and open interest increased as the prompt fell at the front of the week but the trend changed with the turnover diminishing on Friday. Perhaps this suggests that sellers below $1.650 might be more cautious. Notwithstanding that potential, given the weak ending close a contract low close for the April contract , the technical presumption is April will likely head lower.

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You Have to Love Range Trading or Premium Selling

Daily Continuous

If you are selling premium (options) or accurately range trading this market you are having a good Q1. This is looking like a market that is in a hurry to go nowhere. Will bring more thoughts when the Daily limits the distribution later in the week.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Key Support Never Tested

Daily Continuous

Prices never tested the key levels of support before finding buyers and gaining a dime. Perhaps we have developed another range trade and will be testing the resistance either tomorrow or next week. The market has not left the range trade of the last 5 weeks between the $1.50’s and $2.00 but prehaps the market is consolidating in a narrower range.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

Coming Close to Key Support

Daily Continuous

Suggested some volatility with prices testing support — got some quiet declines but did not test support. Perhaps the storage report will bring a test but not convinced. Until continue the selling of premium as a money making trade until a new bias is confirmed.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Going to Get Set For Storage

Daily Continuous

What is the saying about lip stick and pigs– not sure but this market is starting to resemble the animal. No serious momentum down — nor was there any follow through at resistance. All I can say is my option positions in April are a day closer to expiration, which being short out of the money calls works to my favor. Lets get some volatility into this pig and challenge the lows of last month in the $1.50’s.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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