Author: Willis Bennett

Is Support Building For a Break

Interesting trade early this week as prices have held firm without the weekly negative push. Can’t say anything more than “range” but some of the action is proving interesting as I watch the paint dry.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Oh Look — Consolidation Continues

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What have I not said during the last few weeks?

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.481, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.87, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Spring Trade Action Similar to 2020 and Last Year

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Current patterns are showing some consistency to trade last year and back in 2020, as the market is stuck in a consolidating trading pattern (though at different price levels) during the late winter early spring time period. Prompt gas has a history of finding some support in the spring. From a Q1 low (which traded on 03/26), the ten years average rally is about 50%. Last year from a low traded on 03/29 at $1.944, the successive prompts rallied prices 46%, but it took until late June to achieve that increase. Most of last spring the gas market traded in fits and starts but did trade higher monthly lows in April, in May and in June. Prompt gas rarely trades a lower low during calendar April than it did in calendar March (once since 2016).

Some of the technical indicators have marginally improved in both of the last two weeks but remain negative. Mathematically based momentum indicators (none of which confirmed the April expiration lower low) continue to suggest bullish momentum divergences. Divergences are not critical to a major shift in bias, but ignoring them leaves you at peril.

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Tired of Reading About Range Trade?

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Seems like the market likes to go into a spring period of boredom as I discussed in the Weekly Section. Similarities abound and if you need further evidence bring up a month chart of continuation prices. not much more to add than what was discussed in the Longer term area so not going to waste more of my time. I gather you folks understand my not writing the same stuff day after day is not laziness but there is no way to put lipstick on this pig. — Plod along sell, premium count cash.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.511, $1.48, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.87, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Resistance is “Resistance”

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That is why they call it resistance as prices trade between the 50 Day SMA and the 10 Week SMA but does not close above them both on a daily basis. The trader has to believe resistance breaks or holds — your guess is as good as mine.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.87, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

Rerun Continues

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As discussed in yesterday’s Daily– the trade seems to be following a path similar to last month in early March as weather brought some short term support to prices. The same seems to be occurring this month. Wait for for prices to definitively break above resistance– by closing above the near term resistance between $1.85-$1.96 on a daily basis– before entering any serious length. In the meantime, I found the early March rally a good opportunity to sell some premium in the options market.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.872, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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Similar to Last Month – Firm to Start

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Seen this movie before — lets see if the plot thickens on this month as prices start the month off with strength only to fall back after the first week.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

Strong Daily Close to May

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Been a few days but nothing has changed. Prices rallied late last week but ran into the trading wall (either side of $2.00) regardless of the expiration gains given to May. Another month and would not expect a big shift in the recent ranges.

Major Support:, $1.595, $1.52-$1.519, $1.432, $1.312
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $1.863, $1.94-$1.967, $2.00, $3.00, $3.16, $3.48, $3.536, 3.59,

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No New Bias Definition

Weekly Continuation

April expiration was similar to March, but April’s spike lower was a little different. The trade to $1.481 was the low of April’s closing range whereas expiring March reversed higher, trading as high as $1.720 before fading to settle at $1.615, April appeared amply offered through the process. Settlement at $1.575 was $ .04/dt below March (significantly different from March settling $.875 below February) and was the lowest contract month settlement since July ’20 went off the board at $1.495.

April’s last minute spike lower had the earmarks of a classic capitulation low except that a volume spike was missing. With that critical difference noted, trade for the holiday shortened week had a striking similarity to the week March went off the board. With the premium awarded new prompt April the weekly continuation chart showed an “outside” week reversal higher (noted at the time also without the requisite volume ). Even so, April rallied to trade the calendar March high at $2.009 before retreating to close the “expiration” gap left between $1.720 and $1.782 on 03/12.

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Options Today Contract Tomorrow

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I have jumped ahead to the May contract for analytical purposes as the expiring April (Wednesday) provides no analytical support. Stick with the themes from the Long term Week section and unless something dramatic happens this will likely be the last daily until next week (Good Friday celebration on Friday). Should something, happens will post on Thursday.

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