Author: Willis Bennett

Still Negative After All These Months

Weekly Continuous

The expiration process went off as expected staying with in the range that was developed during month. A week ago, the premium awarded to November increased from $.266 to $.302. This week that premium rose to $.371. Nov is always premium over Oct, but a year ago when October went to settlement November was awarded $.160, in ’23$ .135. In both ’23 and ’24 new prompt November rallied–in ’23 to a 10/09 high before returning from where it came from then trading back through the low of its first day as prompt on 10/23. The expiration gap left on 09/28/23 was narrowed but not closed and that would have to wait for calendar November.

There is no technical explanation for this year’s exceptional premium other than November’s continuing ability to hold/close above the lower boundary of a trading range that limited declines from around Memorial Day until then prompt August broke down before going off the board at $3.081…and then limited rallies including at the calendar August and to date September highs. Sometimes extraordinary premium for the prompt – in – waiting is delivering a message…sometimes it isn’t.

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Expiration Gap

Daily Continuation

Discuss the expiration gap and some of the history regarding the premium for the Nov contract in the Weekly Section. Would not expect the gap to be closed immediately (perhaps if at all), but the market does not seem to setting up for a rally into the Q4 as it does historically. Would expect the Nov prompt to establish a range just as the previous five contracts have done trading as prompt.

Major Support: $3.06, $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Expiration

Daily Continuation

Do you like craps or roulette? That is how I am assessing the expiration of the Oct contract. Does it run up or does it likely to decline. See you next week.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Nothing Has Changed from Yesterday

Daily Continuous

Can’t say yesterday brought any clarity to the mud puddle we a in. My thoughts are this month is going to trade similar to the last couple with some minor short covering exposing additional selling at higher prices. Tomorrow is option expiration which used to provide some volatility — but I am skeptical of this month.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Key Support Zone

Daily Continuous

Prices headed south to the key areas discussed in the Weekly section that held and found some support. Will be very curious about the upcoming storage release and the market’s response on Thursday.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

Where’s the Momentum

Daily Continuous

While the extension of the declines was expected, but the move ran out of steam from the volume perspective. This causes a pause in the trader’s minds as the extension downward has areas of support to cover the shorts that are sending prices down seems to be limiting the risk perspective of the short sellers.

Major Support: $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance:$2.97, $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Lower Boundary Tested

Weekly Continuous

Friday’s close for October was the lowest of its tenure as prompt (nearly identical to its close of 08/27, the day September went to settlement ($2.888 v $2.886). During that same period the Q4 strip has gained a penny (now $3.304 v $3.293) This type of trade suggests that while the sponsorship is not present to kick off a traditional Q4 rally, there is sufficient sponsorship for the construction of a base.

During calendar ’25 only the March contract traded a high during the last five trading days of its tenure (January ’25 did as well). March fell from $4.476 to settle at$3.906 (January from $4.010 to $3.644). A couple of months, notably May and September, rallied during their last trading day, but every contract month this year has traded lower (seven of the eight to a new contract low or to test the previous contract low, during the closing days of their tenures as prompt).

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Look For A Test Early In the Week

Daily Continuous

Would expect a further decline in prices after last week’s close– the main question remains will declines challenge the $2.80-$2.75 zone (weekly lows from August and September). If not where does the Q4 run commence — read the Weekly for further ideas.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Back In the Saddle (Range)

Daily Continuous

Price could not break above resistance on the storage data– means the market is unlikely to move in an direction in the near term. Continue to work the range trade.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,

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Bouncing Between

Daily Continuous

Price action bounced within the range that has developed – watch to see how the market responds to the storage action coming.

Major Support: $3.00-$2.97, $2.843, $2.727, $2.648
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.061, $3.16, $3.192, $3.25-$3.31,$3.39, $3.62, $4.168, $4.461,