Author: Willis Bennett

Challenging the Lows From Earlier in the Week

Daily Continuous

Prices fell back near the lows from earlier in the week on the storage release. While the market continues to maintain a slightly bullish bias this year — there is clearly a discussion amongst the traders as to the accuracy of that bias. This market could be bought with options or contracts on pull-backs but keep the stops tight until the discussion becomes a statement.

Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :
Major Resistance: $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

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Rebound?

Daily Continuous

Nothing like an economic rebound and crude rebound to support the gas market. Technical data points indicate a nice daily reversal but be careful with the inputs that brought this to fruition. Taking a day to watch the market may be the best call.

Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.742
Major Resistance: $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

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Prices Break Below Near Term Support

Daily Continuous

The declines (likely linked to the declines in crude and the US Dollar) may extend further but not sure they will challenge the bias base at $2.99 from earlier in the year. Starting to be oversold so tread lightly on the down side exposure.

Major Support: $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.448
Major Resistance: $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.03

Gas Joins the Crude Declines

Daily Continuous

The natural gas market fell prey to the economic declines associated with the crude oil declines of late. The declines tested the lows from the middle of February just above the $3.60 level — now lets watch how much the negative momentum will carry prices.

Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.742
Major Resistance: $3.86, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

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Crude Market in Decline– Gas Remains Range Bound

Weekly Continuous

Beginning its first full week as prompt May, jumped higher but the attempt to trade further into resistance was frustrated by a previously violated short – term trend line. For the third time in three weeks prompt gas traded a weekly reversal, each of those reversals has been traded with diminishing volume suggesting an increasing “uneasy equilibrium”, as prompt gas consolidates ahead of a range expansion…one way or the other.

Prompt gas has been trading between a pair of high volume lows ($3.554 and $3.742) and a pair of high volume highs ($4.476 and $4.551) One exception of the brief spike to the March high, since mid – February . The zone between the two lows (02/18 & 03/03) is very well defined support that has been tested once…on 03/27 when about to expire April traded the March low, $3.689 and simultaneously completed an expected regression to the 20 – week SMA. This week’s poor close, strongly suggests May will retest that support…and an important trend line on the May chart.

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Will Energy Weakness Pressure Gas

Daily Continuous

Crude has hit the edge and fallen, the dollar continues to decline what is left for natural gas—- no clue but early trade suggests that it too will fall under pressure. It will be interesting to watch how traders interpret the world economic events in the near term. Discuss the future price expectation in the Weekly area.

Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

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Quiet and Developing Range

Daily Continuous

No break out or down after the storage release and the price action reflected the non-action by maintaining the recent range — nothing new for tomorrow. Keep the range trading on.

Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

Trying to Define

Daily Continuous

Have been discussing the market trying to establish a base for the next bias direction, either up or down, and is the definition of a technical range trade that will likely hold for the near term.

Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

Daily Continuous

Nothing really new after yesterday’s trade as the market continued into the range after a strong start before slight correction. Still believe this is a market with a long term bullish bias but needs to correct and develop a base to rally from.

Major Support: $3.60-$3.584, $3.16-$2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support : $3.827-$3.801 $3.742
Major Resistance: $4.00, $4.168, $4.461, $4.501, $4.551, $4.746-$4.75, $5.031

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Range Remains

Weekly Continuous

After consecutive poor weekly closes following the price spike to $4.901, April nearly completed the thought of a regression to the continuation 20 – weeks SMA. The expiring prompt traded as low as $3.689 (the value of the 20 week avg was $3.655) before recovering enough to go off the board at $3.861, a little under March ($3.906) but higher than January ($3.644) and February ($3.535). Four calendar ’25 settlements in relatively close proximity suggests that he gas market is adjusting to a higher price level and is/has (or will) come to some kind of uneasy equilibrium. New prompt May followed the expiring prompt lower and tested support at its January high before reversing back through its 50 – day SMA. Well bid into the close May posted a gain for the week, its first since the high weekly close on 03/07 ($4.456).

Characteristically, in a healthy uptrend volume increases as prices push higher. When a correction occurs volume should diminish. As can best be seen, aside from the volume divergence that occurred during the week of the spike high (a higher high with lower volume) that is what has occurred since the January low and periodically before. Particularly the three higher weekly closes following that January low with increasing volume, the “inside” week with a lower close with diminished volume and more volume as prompt April traded to the early March high weekly close. Since then, with lower closes volume for each week has steadily diminished. This week’s lower volume reversal after April lost ground into expiration is an indication that the gas market is not ready to run back toward the highs, but suggests that the foundation is being laid.

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