Author: Willis Bennett

Spot July Contract

Prices continued the historical trend of declining in early July prompt trade but stopped at trend line support and lows established in March. If that support breaks- then expect trade to decline another dime. The market remains in the range but is starting to attack the premiums of the differed summer contracts, staying with in the range. That is a trading opportunity near term.

As discussed yesterday, the expectation was for prices to expire within a few pennies of May, as nothing has changed from a technical perspective. This author will let you fundamental folks to discuss the fundamental changes since the May expiration. What will be of more importance is the July contract trading in relation to the expiration as we may get more information to the seasonal historical trends discussed in the web site. Be patient and work the range.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.705-$1.649
Major Resistance: $1.82-$1.849, $1.873, $1.90
Minor Resistance: $1.799, $2.029

Went into the historical aspect of this expiration, Holiday weakness and what to expect early in June on the web site. It is part of your subscription so when you get a chance during the day — bring it up. In terms of today and tomorrow (expiration), going out on a limb that June will settle with in a few pennies of where May expired ($1.794). Why– nothing has changed in the technical world except for the break out (on web site), but the collapse in prices, after, mitigated that move. Here we sit. All that an be traded on is the range until the market chooses to tell you where its next movement is.

Prices continued lower on the EIA report, even thought the injection was bullish compared to expectations. Looking at other commodity charts, I was struck with the recent rally in crude (WTI) and the monotonous decline in natural gas — it took me back to the fall of 2018 when trading houses were buying crude and offsetting that position with selling Natty. One got caught and pummeled into bankruptcy. Not sure if this is happening, but for the third consecutive day, I have heard suggestions in the market. Be aware of the potential– but continue to work the range.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.649
Major Resistance: $1.82-$1.849, $1.873, $1.90
Minor Resistance: $2.029

Prices consolidated the gains from Monday and traded in a tighter range. Perhaps, the trade is building positions to move higher or developing positions to test support, but evidence either way is missing now. Traders would be wise to wait for clearer signals to initiate substantial new positions. Continue to play the book of the higher end of the range to be found before the historical trend of weaker prices either side of the Memorial Day holiday take hold.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.649
Major Resistance: $1.82-$1.849, $1.873, $1.90
Minor Resistance: $2.029

Wasn’t expecting that kind of pop in prices, regardless of the history of the June contract rising into weakness around the Memorial Day holiday. Some of my Candlestick traders tried to explain why but they are well above my knowledge of Candlestick patterns (beyond Doji patterns) and therefore I will not bore you with the details. Facts are the June caught a bid after a terrible trade last week. Guess where we are — yup- right in the range trade that has worked for the last few months. Play accordingly.

Major Support: $1.611-$1.59, $1.555-$1.519
Minor Support: $1.649
Major Resistance: $1.82-$1.849, $1.873, $1.90
Minor Resistance: $2.029

Got to the internet to update but not a lot to explain other than range trading and from early Sunday trade, prices want to move higher. Doubt it will last long as the rallies are still selling opportunities. Still concerned about the limitations of trading discussed in the web site regarding the trading house. Play the range — but be advised — the trading house closing the potential of trading the prompt (10 days in advance of expiration) is very disturbing to this trader.