Author: Willis Bennett

A full circle trade day as price jumped at the start — only to give it through out the trade day. Similar action to Tuesday. I do not consider a decline to $2.70 as a definitive test of support — but I may wrong. Wrote yesterday about the goals of these declines (mentioning the $2.70 area as the initial zone) and nothing today has changed those opinions.

Support: $2.566, $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.547, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

Finally got the declines but they came no where near the levels to define the market mid term, rather just re-affirmed the recent trade range. Have sent out a note to the long range clients to watch this market as it hasn’t gone down when demand forecasts looked weak (last two weeks) and prices have remained firm. It also bothers me that the next 6 months trade in a $.15 window. To my memory (declining as it is) I can’t remember this type of differed set up to the prompt Feb contract.

Support: $2.566, $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.547, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

Prices challenged resistance that I did not consider as it hit the highs from Nov ’19 (see Chart below) which had long since been traded through but I left it on the Weekly chart:

From the highs, the market reversed, gradually melting down and then collapsing at the end of the trade day. Not sure what spooked the rally up to the highs, but now the market has successfully tested resistance, expect the market to test support. Question is which level of support- The gap from the beginning of the year should be included in the longer term mix– but before that look at the area either side of $2.70 to provide near term support.

Not sure what caused the reversal but it was serious enough to take a 4 penny decline and turn it into an 8 penny gain. Expected tests lower yesterday an possible closing the gap from the first week, but not to be and now it looks like a test of resistance at $2.81 is in the cards. That is a reversal and how far it goes remains to be seen.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.547, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

Prices opened with a gap last week and tried to close the gap failed. From those declines, they managed to trade in a range higher for the remainder of the week. Prices are opening softer in the Sunday trade and seem to want to closed the gap from last week. That action would take prices down to $2.547. Went into some mid-range analysis in the Weekly section, which I would recommend reading, but the market is trading in a range with the short term looking bearish but the longer term bias remains a more positive perspective.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.547, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

An inside day yesterday as prices created no new high and no extension downward even with the storage report release. I wish the techs would tell more but things haven’t changed for the last few weeks when I discussed (December Weekly) that price over the long term (see Monthly or Weekly charts) remains with a slight bullish environment but is susceptible to declines testing support. Current price action seems to be using the 50 day SMA as near term resistance. Key areas for support is last months gap open low at $2.238 and resistance has been defined at the 50 day SMA up to $2.79. Need to be patient here as bias needs to be confirmed.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.547, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

Prices continued the mild strength as a higher high occurred with a higher low on the day. Don’t read a lot into that observation as it seems that the market continues to look like a consolidation pattern, waiting for the next directional bias. From the technical perspective, nothing has been defined nor indicated.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.547, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

Not a week goes bye where I don’t hear a rumor about the busts in the weather models (both European and American models)– I just don’t know how you fundamental folks deal with it. To me, the market is consolidating the gains from the gap open and should retest the low side of the gap. Does it break down, or does it rebound — anyone’s guess– but the results will be important for near term direction.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.547, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806

The market is confusing my analytical mind set on the fundamental data points. Clients tell me that the fundamental data (weather forecasts and HDD’s below normal) is rather bearish– yet the market gaps up and maintains the gap during the trade day. Confusion reigns. I do see that the Dutch TTF contract seems to be on a tear and has been for last couple of weeks. Is the market implying that there is some trading between the two markets — (LNG relevant)– this could be interesting to watch through the month as I explained the potential impact from the Feb contract during January, for the rest of the year.

Support: $2.373, $2.255-$2.176
Minor Support:$2.547, $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance: $2.806