Author: Willis Bennett

Lower End of Range Tested

Daily Continuous

Was hoping that the lower end of the developing trading range for March would be defined more dramatically than what transpired. Clearly, prices will be supported as the decline under $2.70 — but there is not a significant support areas from the $2.68 of yesterday all the way down to $2.54. Therefore the range is $2.68-$2.89 for now. What happened last month was a rare occurrence and looking for a repeat is not wise.

Support: $2.74, $2.65, $2.54, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.94, $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$2.85

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Tardy and Range

Daily Continuous

Yesterday turned out to be a good day to suffer a stomach issue as the market just churned lower and now this morning seems to be looking to set the low end of the range. My apologies for not emailing the Daily and the tardy post, but I am still not in my game plan.

Support:$2.764, $2.74, $2.65, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.94, $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$2.85

Patience is Required

Daily Continuous

Well that was a brief extension upwards, but the declines on Sunday/Monday down to $2.70 need to be re-confirmed. Thought yesterday may bring that but so much for my thoughts. This area needs to be traded cautiously as no defined floor has been established but many areas of resistance ($2.92-$3.00) are evident. Sometimes it is prudent to sit back and wait for the market to paint the picture.

Support:$2.764, $2.74, $2.65, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.94, $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$2.85

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Range Is Working

Daily Continuous

The first two (almost three) weeks of February gave us consistent ranges to trade gas and provided some decent revenue. Will wait patiently to see if March provides the same opportunity. Will need to see where the support is (here or below down to $2.65) to bring out some low risk buying. Already know the high end of near term range is $2.85-$2.94 up to $3.00. Now we need to find where the low end resides.

Support:$2.764, $2.74, $2.65, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.94, $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$2.85

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March Settlement – Highest of Q1

Weekly Continuous

Of the last thirty years, there has been five other years that March settlement was the highest of the Q1 (historically weak period) months — ’03, ’05, ’07, ’08 and ’13.  In that 5 year sample only March ’03, which went off the board at 9.133, was the highest settlement of the year.  Multiple monthly settlements exceeded March’s in the other four years, higher Q2 prices were traded in all and all eventually traded to highs higher than that of the previous year’s Q4 high. March settlements were part of an uptrend that had begun during the spring or summer of the previous year and had not yet entered its ending phase.  If you recall, I mentioned history last fall about the strength of the Sept contract during August from a historical perspective. Being honest, ’13 was in the group mentioned about the perspective for higher trades in winter and the highs were set in Feb ’14 after that strong Aug showing. The market did set a “high” in Feb this year but with the differed months continuing to show strength– I am not convinced that the rally is over.

Monthly Continuous

Support:$2.764, $2.74, $2.65, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$3.172

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Declines Continue Through the Week

Daily Continuous

Prices continued to decline on Friday making lower prices in four of the last five days. Testing the support zones during the day, prices bounced and rallied during the day trade. Would correlate that action to testing the support and garnishing the support to rally from. Play the ranges until the market tells us different.

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April Starts Quietly

Daily Continuous

April as prompt traded in an $.08 range yesterday– the struggle between the bullish storage report and the recent down trend turned out to be a quiet event. Doubt there will be anything dramatic going into the weekend but with natural gas — you never know. Long term analysis will be updated over the weekend but nothing has changed from the action of calendar February.

Support:$2.764, $2.74, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$3.172

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Subtle Expiration Declines

Daily Continuation

The expiration was lower (continuing the trend) and now the new prompt (April) faces an immediate challenge of the recent declining trend vs what is likely to be a near record storage release after the weather of last week. It may be an interesting struggle as the range of withdrawals is fairly wide.

Support:$2.834, $2.74, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$3.172

Gas Remains in “Comfort Zone”

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Prices continued to the downside yesterday and into the comfort area that held trade during the calendar February. The very small gap from Feb 1st at $2.712 is likely the low for the month- therefore- expect prices to stay with in the majority of the range for February (either side of $2.82). It seems that the April contract, though a little weaker, is also staying within the comfort zone.

Support:$2.834, $2.74, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.98-$3.05, $3.082, $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$3.172

Prices Continue Losses

Daily Continuous

It is likely that the losses from yesterday may continue into today but with the expiration on Wednesday- would not look for any major collapse. The movements have taken prices back into the range that they traded for a significant part of February and the April contract is right with the expiring March. Work the range (similar to the first two weeks of Feb) through expiration.

Support:$2.98-$3.05, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.806, $2.71, $2.60-$2.554,$2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $3.316-$$3.396, $3.486
Minor Resistance:$3.172

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