Author: Willis Bennett

Doubt that prices will just explode with the new prompt / early May contract. Of more importance is how does the market behavior over the coming period of time. Expect prices to try to and test the low end of the range into the high $2.50’s eventually and that movement (the results) will define a directional bias for the May contract.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Spoke last week about the Monday tendencies, which were not confirmed last week, but they are showing some interesting trends that I will go into during the week in the Weekly area. In the mean time- should April go out weak, expect the May to retrace near the expiration. Should April go out with some strength, look for May to extend the gains. Should April expiration be flat (expectation), expect May to continue the recent range activity.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Well, at least yesterday’s range was a dime– Be careful out there with your positions (sarcasm included). Today provides the potential for option expiration “creativity” but due to the lack of movement in the last two weeks, I would doubt any fireworks. I am more keen on watching the $2.58-$2.59 area with both the April and May contract. For the last two weeks, prices have not been able to break above and close above this zone — but the May contract has and continues to. Will the weakness continue and force the May to come back and close with April next week? A rhetorical question that bears watching– we certainly have expectations of what happens after the market’s decision.

This consolidation is starting to bore me as I had to go out to crude market to find some sort of volatility (nice bounce off of a higher low in crude). Gas has a tendency to fall into these lulls (lacking volatility and price movement) but an $.08 movement followed by a $.042 range is bordering on bizarre for gas. Markets are what they are and this one seems very quiet currently.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Not much to comment on as prices just retraced back into the the area just below the gap from last week. Very quiet set up for the storage release tomorrow and clearly a consolidating market wait for additional directional bias.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Commented numerous times last week about the potential for the gap that was formed last Monday to be closed and was a target for traders. Needless to say, I am startled to see it happen on Monday this week as that is in the face of the previous two Monday’s price action. Never the less, it did and now trade will have to work through the rally with expiration coming in a week. I was expecting recent ranges to remain in place for the beginning of the week and then form a break down or break out during the last couple of days of prompt life. I want to wait and see if this slightly bullish bias holds this week as the market is not near the highs nor the lows of the month’s trade range ($2.422-$2.887).

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

For the third Sunday in a row — prices open weaker after bouncing off the lows during the week prior. Not sure about the trend but I did find it interesting that the Managed Money Short positions (speculative short sector) has increased their positions dramatically in the last couple of weeks (discussed in the Weekly section) and they are required to report positions at the end of the trade day on Tuesday. It would be consistent to the trend to have prices lower today and retest the support areas from last week. Longer term — would think this market may trade in the recent range from the gap $2.56 and the lows of last week during the coming week as there doesn’t seem to be any fundamental reason to impact prices.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806

Spoke yesterday about the potential for two outcomes from the potential volatility associated with the storage report– the third outcome was the market goes nowhere. We got the third outcome and though there was a good rally off of the initial knee jerk decline, prices just settled back to where they have been the last couple of day. Volume was strong for the day as prices churned during the day-open interest has not been posted yet.

Support: $2.422-$2.414, $2.373–$2.356,$2.255-$2.176
Minor Support: $2.483, $2.162
Major Resistance: $2.74-$2.789, $2.89, $2.98-$3.05,
Minor Resistance:$2.806