April started its prompt role with a slight rally only to succumb 10 days into trade, left a gap on the declines, that remained as resistance until last week. The brief run closed the gap but there was unable to additional progress. Soon to expire prompt traded through a previous week’s high and recorded a gain for the first time in five weeks. This all occurred on declining volume which leads this writer to conclude that the chances of April expiration above that of March’s ($2.854) at slim to none.
Now May comes into the spotlight as prompt on Tues. In the chart above the May contract also had a gap that finally closed last week. It also traded we with in the range between $2.49 and $2.64 similar to the range in the April contract. Some interesting developments in the open interest and volume that I want to dive into and explain later in the week. Not sure where the April is going to end, but regardless, May is likely to come back to the April close if it is weak and/or if April closes strong, May will likely try to extend those gains.