Author: Willis Bennett

Testing the August Contract Lows

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The initial test of the August low was met with expected support. That support may not suggest a rally to take prices to test resistance. The low test is not complete as the internals hint additional declines may be coming.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Testing August Low’s

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As mentioned yesterday, personal family issues are going to minimize the analysis for the early part of the week. All I can say about yesterday’s and tomorrow’s trade will be seeking the lows of the calendar July with the August contract.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Continue Lower

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Explain the brevity of the Daily due to some issues explained in the Weekly Section. While I wait in the ER for my dog it is evident that the market wants to trade lower tomorrow. Hang tough or keep playing the low end of the Aug range.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Trade Looks to the Low Side of August Range

Weekly Continuous

This week’s report is going to be short as I am taking my dog to the emergency vet service. Over the history of August contracts there have been a few that the late summer contract rallied for most of its tenure and was bid into expiration, ‘21 and ’22 are the most recent examples. In both of those years prompt gas set a calendar August high before falling. There have been a few that steadily weakened, ’17 and ’18 are examples. In both of those years prompt gas made a late July/early August low before a significant rally.

More often than not, August follows a pattern of trading a post – 4th low, a mid – July high followed by weakening to a low either side of 7/23 – 7/25.Look for August ’25 is conforming to that seasonal pattern. The 07/09 undercut of the June low ($3.199 on 06/26 ) was on far and away highest volume traded since then.

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A Brief Test

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Prices tied to test and break the early July high only to fall back. Still looking at a quiet range trading market in this market at this point in the month.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Break Out ?

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Would consider a break above $3.50 a breakout and the fact it was not held with volume expansion (nor open interest– not published yet) I would consider it a top of the range test. Hang tight — volatility will appear sometime.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Expectations Met

Weekly Continuous

I wrote last week —The expectation was the decline to occur on either 07/07 or 08. Instead, August fell $.458 (12.2%) on 06/30 and 07/01…closing the gap and trading just through the low of the first targeted support band ($3.300 – $3.350). Well the declines continued to July 9th and promptly met the expectations for the size of the declines (in fact exceeded them). Once the low was set, prices bounced and returned to with in the range for the July contract and now seemingly the August contract. Folks, this market seems to being going nowhere and at a slow pace.

Understanding the frustration of many of you (for volatility– myself included) but my ideas are to highlight what I see the market is trying to accomplish and clue you in advance of the movement– unfortunately this market is showing no movement beyond the range each successive contract trades within. There may be an occasional lapse in Daily diatribes during these periods.

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Going Where?

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Didn’t post last Friday as the market is just continuing the range aspect of trade (please see the Weekly section for more information). My comments may have additional breaks in publishing if the prices remain within the tight ranges.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

Testing Continues

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Prices continue to seek the low side of the range with the August contract as prompt. Nothing to mention technically except a failure at a lower low while challenging the May lows with the June contract.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501

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Still Searching

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As mentioned yesterday — prices are seeking to define the low end of the range which may hold the August contract as prompt. Be patient during this lull in trading.

Major Support: $3.25-$3.16, $3.054-$3.007, $2.97, $2.727, $2.648,
Minor Support :$3.62, $3.46, $3.30-$3.26
Major Resistance:$4.168, $4.461, $4.501