While the support zone between $3.00 and $3.05 had held the market for the previous couple of months, it was no match for the selling that came in after the storage release. Rather than hold that support…and bounce as expected, prompt gas fell to test the continuation post Memorial Day lows ($2.857 – $2.859, 05/26 & 05/27. This year the pre Independence Day high traded on 06/26 at $3.441. The to date post – holiday low is $2.874…a decline of .567 or 16.5%. The five and ten years average of the seasonal declines are 18.9 % and 15.26% so this years market is close to a historical tendency.
While there have been years that prompt August traded steadily lower for all, or almost all, of its tenure as prompt…’24 is the most recent example (and the only example of the last ten years). Far more often August trades a post – holiday low between the 10th and 20th…even in ’24 the low before the three day bounce, before closing the month lower.
