July has traded the high of its tenure three times in the last ten years just before going to settlement, ’16, ’21 and ’23. Of those three ’23 is most similar to current conditions, but in all three…even in ’21 with prompt gas in a defined uptrend, settlement on the last day of June was $3.373, the calendar August low $3.734. Notwithstanding its well – defined uptrend, the gas market spent most of the summer consolidating before extending a rally into Q4 (in ’23 that high traded during October). July ’26 settled $.191 higher than June ($3.231, the highest settlement since February v $3.040) as expected.
August gas has been range-bound since the last trading day of March…between +/- $3.000 and $3.410 – $3.430. The April and May lows of August gas, $2.974 and $3.001, together with the June low, $3.059 should provide substantial support. Higher monthly lows are technically constructive but expect August to remain confined (with slight expansions due to potential weather implications) in a range similar to July.
