Another quiet week in a market that seems very content to stay in a range. The consensus of technical indicators is neutral. The technical indicators have now been neutral for fifteen of the last sixteen weeks. That’s pretty typical for the consensus during the construction of a trading range. A close above the 40 – weeks SMA with rising supporting volume would trigger positive agreement of the indicators. A close below the trend line rising from the April and May lows would likely result in negative agreement.
The weekly MACD, our primary “lagging” indicator, remained positive while the daily calculation is negative . The weekly RSI is neutral – negative. After stalling at a lower higher ten days ago the daily RSI is neutral. Market internals have been mixed for four straight weeks. Average daily volume was higher as the prompt fell…a technical negative, but on the other side -open interest fell 31,000 + as the prompt fell…a technical positive. Last week the total range traded was about half of the week before. This week that range continued to contract, from .297 to .218. The weekly ATR fell to a lower low .311 v .328. While it has not always been so, that is considered at least neutral. The daily ATR increased from .148 to .153
