Trade during May is an example of a price supportive seasonality that historically emerges during Q2. Prompt gas had closed above the April high during May in 16 of 20 years. On a continuation basis prompt gas closed below its 50 – day SMA every day since 01/29 (the first day of March’s tenure as prompt)…until Monday 05/11. On Friday the June contract followed suit, closing above its 50 – day for the first time since 03/12.
Although occasionally June rallies into expiration (’18 & ’22), typically during May the prompt trades to a mid – month, pre Memorial Day high. In eight of the last ten years that short – term seasonal high traded between the 12th and 23rd, before a decline through the holiday to an end of May – first week of June low. A year ago the May high traded on 05/12, the post – Memorial Day low was a little earlier than usual, on 05/28 (Memorial Day was the 26th).
