Perhaps the Market Showed Too Much Strength

Daily Continuous

Go into last week’s trade and the results in the Weekly Section–From a daily perspective the market is confirming the lack of follow through in the light Monday trade as prices rejected any type of follow-through of the rally. One element discussed in the Weekly section is the historically extreme premium the Feb has to Mar. Check out the chart below and you will see that the extreme variance is starting to narrow.

February less March Contracts

Mentioned in the Daily last week that a source of the short covering was the Feb contracts being bought to cover the short — Then I mentioned that the short covering rally had a slight gain in open interest– the differential can’t confirm that the reason for the gain was those traders who were covering shorts “rolled” them into March but looking at the the breakout in the differential spread may be an indication. If you cover a short but roll it to the next month there is no change in open interest, but you have sold the next month — putting pressure on that contract. This will be interesting to trade in the coming week as March may gain to narrow the differential while Feb declines.

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