Since closing at $3.473 two weeks ago (the second highest weekly close of 2023) prompt gas has given up $.513/dt on a weekly closing basis. The rally from the March low to the October high ($3.630) has been retraced by a little over the 38.2% (Fibonacci retracement–technical level) but prompt gas remains above the intermediate term uptrend defining trend line rising from the April – May lows (Chart above). This trend line has been tested several times since the spring low. I would allow this as a pretty normal correction– 50% retracement of the rally is $2.787, which happens to be almost exactly the price needed to close the “expiration gap” left on 09/28 (natural gas abhors a vacuum). Prices declining will once again test the rising trend line (on a daily continuation basis the value of that trend line begins the week at $2.807) then test the 20 – week SMA (currently $2.832).
Technical thinking was that December would retreat to test support at the double bottom left on 10/03 and 10/23 (twin weekly lows at $3.216), the lower boundary of an orderly trading range. Indicators did not expect the gap lower on 11/06, a gap that remains open and confirms an RSI bearish momentum divergence. The combination of those technical factors suggests declines have not concluded.
