After selling lower prices could not far enough to close the gap from the Sept 28th expiration low and gap ($2.781 – $2.820), soon to expire November flipped, rallied, and filled the gap on the high end from the previous week and then extended the rally another +/-$.20 before fading into expiration. Even with the decline from $3.401 to settle at $3.164 November went off the board $.265 above last week’s close and at the highest contract settlement value since January ’23 at $4.709 in Dec ’22.
Mentioned in the Daily and Weekly reports of the tendency for prices to return to test the breakout level of support (resistance once violated becomes support if the breakout is valid). Prompt gas followed that technical script closely, but while that was going on November remained confined in a range it had created and discussed last week, trading between $2.825 and $3.485. Just before October expiration November tested the lower boundary of that zone. Two weeks after that successful test it tested the upper boundary of that range (trading to $3.471- just short of its August high. The Nov prompt’s strong rally into expiration, a very rare event in 2023, fell well short of that upper boundary $2.401 vs $2.471, and the settlement at $3.164 was just about midway within that range.