Headed To Bias Determination

Weekly Continuous

One of the most significant changes that the market provided was that October was bid into expiration and it has been months since we have seen that. After closing lower on Monday the expiring prompt reversed higher, on with pretty decent volume, and went off the board at $2.764, which was $.19/dt higher than September and the highest monthly settlement since February at $3.109. Settlement was notably still below the resistance defined by the June/July highs (the pre settlement high was $2.781), but premiums afforded November quickly changed that.

I spoke, recently, about the premium awarded November had fallen from a historically generous $.502 on 08/15 to $.242. When October went off the board that premium had been further reduced to $.135 ($2.764 v $2.899) which is more in line with the traditional norm but still more than enough to leave the expected “expiration gap” ($2.781 – $2.868) . Continuation resistance ( March and August highs $3.018 – $3.027) proved too much to overcome and now the September high ($2.997) has been added to the formidable resistance zone. The gains left the calendar September close $.165/dt better than the August close and the highest calendar month close since December and Q4 ’22 ended at $4.430.

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