The expected, July contract gave up the record premium that had been awarded over expired June. The new prompt traded just through June’s expiration low ($2.138 v $2.143) nearly on the the value of a trend line rising from the April/May lows, before recovering a few cents. In four of the last five weeks prompt gas has settled between $2.113 and $2.181 as daily and weekly trend lines steadily made their way to convergence with current price above the February/March/April/May lows ($1.967 – $1.944 – $1.946 –$ 2.031) while volatility continues to decline.
Violation of the trend line rising from the April/May lows (currently $2.144 and rising $.005/day) will suggest another test of the support presented by calendar month lows bracketing $2.00.Violation of the trend line declining from the May high (currently $2.290 and falling about $.04/day) will suggest a forthcoming test of the downtrend defining trend line drawn from the August/November/December highs (currently $2.383 and falling $.186/week). Expect July to successful test both ascending and declining short – term support and resistance.