Have mentioned it every week for the last three and sure you are tired of hearing the over-sold condition of the market and that there will be a substantial short covering rally coming (just trying to figure out from where). Wanted to bring it into context by looking at the most recent CFTC data but they did not update data to last Tuesday in the weekly report on Friday– so the analysis is a little late but likely the same interpretation. Take a look at the charts below: The first the Weekly Continuation with Total Open Interest and Volume and the second is the CFTC report through the latest data.
Weekly Continuation with Total Open Interest and Total VolumeWeekly Continuation with Speculative Short Position per CFTC
The ellipses hi-light the trade November 6, 2022. Total OI was at 984,593 contracts and the Speculative shorts represented 180,931 contracts of the total. Obviously, the chart shows the enormous run that the speculative shorts have brought to the market, currently sitting at 250,915 contracts (growing 69,984 contracts). Total OI has grown to 1,168,247 contracts (growing 183,654 contracts). In the recent decline in prices the speculators are responsible for nearly 40% of the recent declines. It is little wonder that warning of the upcoming short covering rally (not sure from where) has been mentioned here.
